Mexican economy next year will face a more complex economic environment, so Growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will decline from 3 percent in 2022 to 1.4 percent in 2023, which will affect tax collectionEstimated Analysts citibanamex,
“The Economic Outlook for Mexico is complicated by various global factorssuch as the forecast of more austere conditions financial marketstill high inflation ratesand an important financial crisis in 2023″, he specified in his report ‘Review of Mexico’s economic situation‘ Corresponding to the fourth quarter.
also warned about risk about the long run of problems in delivery method and a possible new increase of conflict between russia and ukraine,
He speculated that because of financial crisisThe tax collection from 2023, without fuel ieps, will grow only 1.3 percent in real terms, a much lower rate than the approved rate of 14.1 percent. Furthermore, its advance will be lower than the 5.7 percent projected during 2022.
Alejandro Saldana, chief economist at Grupo Financiero BX+, agreed. The economic environment more complex, less GDP growth“Obviously this tax will be reflected in part, in tax collectionespecially when the Treasury drew it economic package With a perspective of an advance of 3 per cent of GDP”.
“We estimate a growth of 0.8 percent of GDP and we believe that tax collection most sensitive to the issue of Economic Developmentespecially non-oil tax revenue“, he pointed out.
In an interview, the expert acknowledged that another negative effect emanated from a high financial cost, our guess is a bit high 28 daysthan predicted by Haciendathat will increase financial cost and it’ll take up a little space on the side cost to the government,
Citibanamex economists estimate that in February 2023 bank of mexico raise yours once again benchmark interest rate It is to be taken at the highest level of 10.75 per cent.
he speculated that headline and core inflation they’ll continue to go down, to give birth to Banxico to reduce its rate in the second half of 2023, although upside risks remain due to risks to it underlying inflation and from the movements of irrigated.
increase in domestic demand should also be moderated as labor market recovery slows down, flow of Remittance loss of mobility and real interest rates Rise, alert.
high financial risk
Saldana Brito said it has issues at the local level risk in finance should be monitored, as they can generate spending pressure, such as the possibility pemex More support is needed.
you should also monitor spending pressure associated with pension, and other social programmeas well as overhead on major operations of this administration, because those are the elements that they can impose risk to public finances Next year.
However, he pointed out that oil futures They remain slightly above the amount estimated by the Treasury for next year, and a oil surplus Will help offset the pressure on public finances. “It looks like the accounts may come to Treasury, but it will depend on price of oil Stay high,” he insisted.
seize the key nearshoring
Experts at Citibanamex indicated that in the face of a deteriorating global environment, there is a growing need to foster an internal environment conducive to growth. short and medium term growth, “Efforts should be made to restore confidence and provide legal certainty for more investments to follow,” he recommended.
He believed that the full potential of Transfer (nearshoring,since a big Investment will increase future growthWill strengthen employment and public finances.
However, before this opportunity some risks prevail and it is the fact Uncertainty generated before the current government canceled infrastructure projectsAnd this electrical repair who forced USMCA Partner Countries Consulting to find solutions.