Saturday, October 23, 2021

61,200 California families say ‘very likely’ to lose ‘this home’ in next two months


Californians behind their mortgage payments are 32 percent more worried about losing their home to foreclosure in the next two months than the entire nation.

All else equal, California will have the highest number of Americans of anything.

As of April 1, 2020, 12.0 percent of all Americans were California residents (people living abroad who maintain their California residency).

This means, again, all else being equal, or as economists might write, ceteris paribus, in Latin for “keeping everyone else still,” people should expect Californians to represent 12 percent of all people for anything that is more broadly true of Americans.

So it should come as no surprise that Californians represent 12.2 percent of all people identified by the U.S. Census Bureau this month as being at least a month late on their mortgage payments.

About 876,000 Californians, out of about 7.2 million Americans, were identified this month as being at least one month late in their mortgage payments.

However, of the 876,000 Californians who are at least a month behind on their mortgage payments, some 61,000, or 15.4 percent, think it’s “very likely” that they will be “due to foreclosure” in the next year. Will have to leave this house in two months.”

Outside of California, only 5.3 percent of Americans who are behind on their mortgage payments think it is “very likely” that they will have to vacate their homes within two months. Two months from now is two weeks before Thanksgiving.

All 61,000+ Californians, virtually all of whom are identified by the census as “very likely” to move out of their homes due to foreclosure within the next two months, at least 8 months before their mortgage payment is due are gone. (The result, of course, is that all Californians worried about being kicked out of their homes because of foreclosure are at least 8 months behind on their mortgage payments, possibly some sort of statistical anomaly, but it’s instructive that Californians are in foreclosure. Americans can be much behind in mortgage payments more generally than they do.)

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Of the 61,000 Californians who think it’s “very likely” they’ll have to move out in the next two months, 7.0 percent of the 876,000 Californians are at least a month behind on their mortgage payments.

Seven percent of California’s delinquent mortgage borrowers are worried (“very likely”) that they will have to leave their home in the next two months, displaying a 32 percent higher level of anxiety among Californians than their counterparts in the rest of the country. Is.

At least one residential real estate agent, Valerie Voss, in the inland kingdom of Riverside in Southern California and San Bernardino County, thinks that any new supplies of homes for sale will be made available by people selling their homes to avoid foreclosure. That going, may relieve some of the upward price pressure in home prices all California suburbs have experienced since the start of the pandemic.

The 61,200 households would be just under 180,000 Californians who would need to find a new place to live, using the average California household size of 2.94 persons per household.

Of course, much of the recent efforts to recall California’s governor were originally angered by grassroots people forcibly closing their businesses and the state’s poor water management policies. As the campaign progressed, some candidates for governor tried to poll among other things, including California’s dire housing shortage and very high housing costs. With the next California election for governor in November 2022, housing could be an important topic in the state’s next gubernatorial election if people begin to lose their homes.


Tim Scheller is a professional investor and economist based in Southern California. He is a regular columnist for The Epoch Times, where he notably provides some of his original economic analysis.


This News Originally From – The Epoch Times

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