Sunday, February 5, 2023

A global recession looms in which Spain will persevere: GDP to grow at 1.7% per year until 2037, according to a report

Global recession is just around the corner. They believe this not only in Citi Global Wealth, from where they sent a warning message to investors, but also in world economic league table Dell Center for Business and Economic Research.

According to this report which Generates forecasts for 191 countries until 2037The world economy is in a complicated state.

Firstly, the opening up that China has been doing for 50 years may end, which will affect its economy. Furthermore, the report states that its tone is more “pessimistic” than in previous years.

is added to Concern over possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan, This will have a negative impact on the trade and economies of the region, which are mostly dependent on the Asian giants.

for his part, India appears as the clear winner in this rankingBecause the report highlights its significant development, which will establish it as the third world economic power in 2035, irrespective of political factors.

6 major threats to the Spanish economy in 2023

“India seems unstoppable in its drive to become the third economic superpower,” says the report, highlighting demographics as a feature in the country’s favor.

In another sequence of things, the report could not stop talking about issues of particular relevance to the forecast: the war in Ukraine, sanctions against Russia, environmental factors or inflation.

Inflation and the energy crisis fuel the specter of a recession

Major central banks are at a crossroads. While some experts say that raising interest rates will help reduce inflation, others believe that this could lead to a larger imbalance and that a recession is looming.

The report deals with a fairly positive outlook on inflation, derived from the decisions of the political leaders of the United States Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England.

All these actors have chosen Keep raising interest rates in 2023In the face of low inflation – which excludes energy and food prices – the world economy as a whole has more than consolidated.

“We expect central banks to remain firmly on hold in 2023 despite the economic cost,” the report suggests. “This will certainly lead to relatively large asset price corrections.”

Unfortunately, economic problems have translated into less concern for environmental factors, despite the fact that the energy sector, for example, is directly related.

research predicts that The price of a barrel of Brent is expected to average $94 (88.52 euros at the current exchange rate) in 2023 and will not fall below $84 until 2024.While the European Union will face structural changes in the productive fabric due to the gas crisis.

Curiously, the EU has turned out to be doing great in managing the said crisis, thanks to the fact that it has been able to cope with reduced demand and energy purchases at a higher cost.

Finally, also keeps the report Russia and Iran as the most affected economies, In the former case, due to their strained relations resulting from the war in Ukraine.

For Iran, despite the fact that its economy has grown in recent years due to high inflation and full controls of foreign exchange and capital, its currency is expected to devalue significantly against the dollar.

Spain’s GDP to grow at 1.7% per year between 2023 and 2037

Through 2022, Spain is classified as a high-income country, far from a 10.8% contraction of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020. During 2021 and 2022, the GDP is projected to increase by 5.1% and 3.9%, respectively.

In any case, inflation driven by the energy price crisis is projected to be 8.8% in 2022. The report highlights the great work of the Spanish government with measures such as the reduction of VAT or emergency packages,

Added to this is a drop in the unemployment rate to 12.7%, the lowest since the last economic crisis.

“This strength in the labor market is encouraging for the economy going forward, although it will be difficult to sustain for the foreseeable future against a backdrop of slowing growth and global headwinds,” he added.

Finally, the report also celebrates the Spanish budget and its commitment to institutionally support the private sector. a) yes, Spanish GDP will have an annual growth rate of 1.7% between 2023 and 2027,

Nation World News Desk
Nation World News Desk
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