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Tuesday, November 29, 2022

A “little summer” of optimism and several projects on the table to attract dollars from the countryside

The sense of urgency, for now, subsides. The main ally of the government today is the climate, Something that doesn’t handle, but accompanies. Thanks to improving temperatures—YPF announced Economy Minister Sergio Massa—the country will need to buy fewer liquefied natural gas (LNG) ships. Added to this was some help from Yacyretá. That’s one less dollar to lose.

that’s not enough. For this reason, today the Secretary of Commerce, which he leads, Matias Tombolini, accelerated a tourniquet on imports that would cost US$1.5 billion at the end of the year. Next week, Carlos Castagneto will promote a system change in the AFIP of Financial Efficiency (CEF), which will likely make it harder for the first filter to request an import permit.

In this context, at US$5 million, US$10 million or US$15 million, Central Bank (BCRA) reserves stopped falling sharply, something that greatly accelerated devaluation expectations. The latter were heated by the impact of rising interest rates on the fiscal dollar.

“Before defining how we multiply export volume, we want the import volume plan to kick off,” he said this week. Country in the Ministry of Economy. “We’re finished,” he said.

Massa received at least four separate proposals from agricultural producers to encourage the sale of grain. of producers, the Rosario Stock Exchange, collectors and grain companies. “Each one kicks for their side,” he said, approaching the Tigers, where he believes he will debate internally on the mechanism promised by the minister to the Council of America later this week. , a commitment confirmed by his Secretary of Agriculture, Juan Jose. In meetings with producers, Massa devoted himself to listening and reducing tension.

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In the meantime, buy time. The leader of the Renovating Front had already promised the option of “playing” with the agricultural team at 9:00 p.m. last Friday, which brought them – as LA NACION reported – proposals for a mechanism that would allow the manufacturer to improve it. will allow. Charged in pesos for a lucky dollar equivalent to 50% of soybeans or $209. That option pushed by the grain companies is now over.

Sergio Massa On The Council Of America
Sergio Massa on the Council of AmericaGerardo Virkovic

Today, another option appeared on the radar. The so-called Refinoplus bis (promoted by Massa in 2008 for Oil), which will recognize a 30% improvement in price for producers through the issuance of a tax credit certificate applicable on payment of soybean withholding for 30%. The certificate begins with each primary disposal of grain that each producer issues during September and is sold to grain companies. (If they are more organized they can totally implement this). They state that this option does not affect futures.

A close aide of Massa confirmed that this is a “Plan B” that the government has in folder. “Plan A”, which colored with a slowdown in BCRA’s move, does not alter the current plan and continues to add “little bits” while waiting for Massa’s reserves to consolidate after the US visit. “There must be some other little thing”, They show promise in economy, however, without giving more details.

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Some of that “Plan A” – slowing down step by step without changes to the exchange plan – slipped from the bowels of the BCRA, where he said today was the last directory of the month and highlighted the so-called “solar soybeans”, for which The producer can fit 70% of his total sales into a bank account that protects him from devaluation and, with the remaining 30%, can buy “solidarity dollars”.

“It’s a sign that at the end of the month it drops. Either they hurry or stay out.” He said, and he assured, that many promises are being made here and there, but the only concrete thing – Miguel Paes’ “soybean dollar” – will fall in a week.

The sector is calling for a consolidation of the exchange rate, which can be read as a devaluation of the official dollar. Both the unit directed by Paes and those in the economy ministry believe that this is not an option. “A sudden devaluation without anchors only generates income transfer across value chains, and impoverishment of companies and people,” he analyzes. For now, thanks to the weather and constraints in the “summer”, Massa gains time on a narrow path and delays decisions.

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