According to the data from Inflation in August, investors are starting to map out their portfolios for the time remaining until the general election. In this context, the city’s bets are linked to a possible release of the official dollar in November, which is why two possible scenarios can already be observed.
According to a recent report by IEB group, The first scenario is that of an orderly transition in which the official exchange rate After the elections there is a correction of 15%, from here there is a sliding exchange rate peg until the president is replaced, after which there is finally a discrete increase in the exchange rate of 60%. A hint that this could happen was given by Gabriel Rubinstein, secretary of Economic policy of Ministry of Economic Affairs.
The second scenario is associated with a disruptive event that implies a devaluation of money official exchange rate The advance, which comes after the general elections, would be 50%. This applies to both scenarios projected inflation during the three months relevant to this exercise (August, September and October) are the same.
Letters: The titles with the best performance expectations (Scenario 1)
In scenario 1, The winner would be TDF24 This would be the asset that would best track the depreciation of the official exchange rate in December, followed by TV24.
We can also observe that in this scenario the CCL Dollars or Settlement Account There would be significant returns if we assume that stocks are maintained and the exchange rate differential remains large. With a gap of 60% or more the CCL It would already be ranked as the third best asset in this simulation.
On the other hand, it is worth noting that among the assets with the shortest maturity Lecer November presents returns that are much higher than the rest, even among all of them CER assets It is the one that offers the best returns.
Letters: Which are the titles with the best performance expectations (Scenario 2)
On the other hand, Grupo IEB affirms that if it is assumed that the Exchange rate jump takes place in October, the letter will be the winner Connected Dollar (D31O3) pursued by him TDF24 that performance in December would be lower compared to the first scenario, but still significant.
In relation to CER assets The conclusions do not change because inflation remains the same as in the first scenario for the months relevant to this study.
Although senior sources associated with the BCRA appear to have denied the possibility of a rate hike, we prefer to avoid fixed income instruments and embrace them short CER assets This will start to reach effective annual interest rates of around 306% with the latest inflation data and they are concretely trending towards this Read November (X23N3).
Regarding the instruments connected to it official dollar You choose that TDF24 while we find the synthetic one very attractive DL that is put together by purchasing the Rofex Future Dollar in October and the read November X23N3. This option currently offers a return of approximately DL+10%. “We believe there is scope for a rate in the near term and these are the instruments we like best for this purpose,” the analysis said.
Bonds: City recommendation to rebuild portfolio
With the financial dollars The IEB Group report points to some “stability” and highlights the preference for allocating 63% of the portfolio to dollar-denominated instruments and 37% to peso-denominated assets.
Meanwhile, since then Facimex values They say that when it comes to dollar fixed income, they maintain an exposure of 60% to government bonds, 20% to provincial bonds and 20% to corporate bonds. “To channel positioning, At Globals we see value in GD41 and GD35 (i.e. bonds issued under foreign jurisdiction) and in AL30 between the Bonars (ley local)”.
In addition, Facimex Valores highlights, in comparison with other countries, that within the group of the most stressed loans Argentina is considered one of the most polluted countries.
The portfolio is now… Government bonds in dollars, designed by the analysts of Personal Investment Portfolio (PPI) for the month of September is made up of all foreign jurisdiction bonds: 40% from Global 2038, 40% from GD35 and 20% from GD46.