George Cachinero The
01 DIC, 2022
America (USA) Can’t defend and protect TaiwanSuccessfully, in the immediate future, i.e., before the end of Xi Jinping’s third term as Chinese premier in 2028, in the event that China decides to opt for the reunification of the island to the full sovereignty of the People’s Republic of China. China.
Furthermore, if that scenario materializes, ie one in which China makes the first move to attack, Taiwan can never beat China And the outcome of that confrontation will always end in Taiwan’s defeat.
there are many Because of America’s weakness To accomplish the goal of preventing China from taking over Taiwan by force.
1.- In the mid 90s, China studies US means to project its power in the Pacific OceanNotably through the use of its air force, outer space, aircraft carriers and a select number of military bases in the region, for example, the Kadena Air Force in Okinawa Prefecture in Japan.
- Since then, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army have developed the ability to attack and neutralize all these assets Day ee. you you.
2.- To try to protect Taiwan from Chinese attack with no guarantee of success, America is dependent on many American allies in the region Prashant, which will have to provide logistic support.
3.- Taiwan does not have the ability to defend itself alone, Against China, because it does not have sufficient number of men with adequate training, ready to fight, sacrifice and die for their freedom.
- While it is true that Taiwan in recent years:
- took China’s threat seriously
- increased its defense budget and finally,
- It has chosen disproportionately to acquire the weapons systems and resources it needs to defend itself against China and to make it difficult for it to build island-sea mines, reinforced shelters or urban guerrilla training One must try, not attack him. the mainland.
4.- Alechinese leaders No they are convinced that America has the determination and Abdomen be willing to bear the cost -Economic and in the casualties of its soldiers- long war against china,
- Beijing is watching all of America’s moves carefully and notes that Washington is strategizing, writing documents, sending politicians to Taiwan and making statements about America’s willingness to defend the island against China. Used to be.
- Even then, All of the above is insufficient to persuade China what real will of america Be consistent with your words and your gestures.
In addition, since last November 8, the US does not have its most powerful weapon against China in Taiwan, Nancy Pelosi, who will no longer be the second person in line to replace the US President in early January, when the United States The House of Representatives meets in its new composition for the first time after the election half term On November 8, 2022.
Chinese leaders heaved a sigh of relief.
The truth is that america’s only hope related Taiwan that is, in the event of an attack by China, the government of Taiwan be able to hold out long enough to arrive 7th Cavalry and to inflict substantial casualties on China This is sufficient for it to consider the feasibility of continuing its military operations against the island.
With such expectations, the truth is that there isn’t much room for optimism.
There is a possibility of war breaking out in Taiwan, although its probability is difficult to calculate.
If this were to happen, the US would not be able to re-arm Taiwan, as it has been doing with Ukraine since February 24, 2022.
Just like that, America is facing serious difficulties in mobilizing its allies in the Asia-Pacific region in favor of the Americans’ efforts to join their efforts to contain China.
US partners are not showing much interest in confronting China hand in hand with the Americans, not even in the invitations that the latter extend to them to prepare themselves, for the scenario of Chinese military intervention. Up front, to cancel any economic or commercial ties with China.
America’s friends in Asia don’t want to commit suicidal Costs in Europe since the start of the war in Ukraine Which America incited against Russia.
China and Taiwan are far from North America.
George Cachinero The
01 DIC, 2022