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Are you going to hold silver UVA fixed term?: What price should the dollar reach to outperform that investment?

savers follow The race between the dollar price and the fixed term UVA, which is a type of financial placement that adjusts based on inflation, to find out which of these two options gives them the best return. In particular, the question arises as to how much blue should be valued at the end of the year to match the advance in the cost of the economy’s products and services.

This inevitable comparison follows the stabilization of the price of the US currency in the free market after the great volatility experienced in July, while inflation shows an increase in its floor. Last month also he touched his Highest level in last 20 years, monthly registration of 7.4%,

in numbers, According to official data, in the first 7 months of the year, prices in the economy climbed 46.2%, while the dollar in the official wholesale segment rose 28% and the MEP dollar (stock exchange) climbed 40% in the same period.

that is Inflation is outpacing dollar price growth throughout the year in all its variants.

“Evidence indicates that the rate of growth of domestic prices is faster in predicting consumption than the various investment options that may be considered. In this context, HEven the dollar is “lost” in its various financial forms. Against an increase in the basket of goods and services represented by the national CPI”, he details iProfesional. Andres Mendez, Director of AMF Economy.

it should be remembered that fixed duration UVA, whose minimum corpus requires a minimum stay of 90 days, repeats the normal level development of the national CPI with a delay of 45 days. So it can be an option that retains the value of savings.

UVA fixed-term monthly yields will exceed 5% per month by the end of the year, and will peak in August and September.

Fixed Term UVA: Expected Returns

While analyzing the projected inflation for the last 5 months of 2022, as per the forecasts made by the participants Market Expectations Survey (REM), As done by the Central Bank, it can be used to reflect how much a fixed-term UVA will yield in the short term.

“Based on CPI growth projections, between the end of July and the end of 2022, it is anticipated that it will increase by 33% over that period. However, due to the drag of higher growth in inflation recorded in the past July, UVA will increase by about 35.3% in these five monthsat an average monthly rate of 6.2%”, summarizes Mendez.

And he says: “However, More optimistic development of UVA can be expected, focuses on the effectiveness of measures adopted to discipline the development of domestic prices. In this case, UVA could increase by 27% between August and December on a monthly average of around 5%.”

In short, according to both the conjectures analyzed by Méndez, The maximum yield of UVA will be reached in SeptemberAnd for the fixed period adjusted by this unit of value, capturing the increase in the CPI for July and the mix for August, “two months, it is estimated, will exceed monthly growth standards.”

What should the blue dollar cost to beat the fixed term UVA?

Faced with these expectations of rising inflation, the question arises about the area that The blue dollar price to carry forward the rest of the year, In other words, the saver wants to know at what value of the exchange rate he or she can exceed the return received in a UVA fixed-term investment.

“It may be pointed out that whoever made UVA placements at the end of July, before interest, will accumulate yields between 27.1% and 35.3%Something that will depend on whether the CPI’s optimistic outlook for the coming months is confirmed or whether the best forecasters confirm their expectations,” Méndez says.

To reach the inflation expected by economists, the price of the blue dollar must reach between a December floor of $376 and a high of $401.

As a result, based on forecasts of expected inflation for the rest of the year, a The “range” in which the fixed-term UVA will exceed the blue dollar advance.

“If the conjectures of the optimists are confirmed With regard to the future growth of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the blue color should close this 2022 up $376 To do away with UVA fixed term investments made at the end of July”Mendez calculates.

On the other hand, if the most alarming expectations regarding a possible increase in prices in the economy are considered, “Blue May Climb Above $401” To be a winner against UVA placements”.

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