Buenos Aires ( Associated Press) – The resignation of Argentina’s economy minister, Martín Guzmán, is another blow to President Alberto Fernández’s autonomy and an advance by Vice President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner in a strategic sector of government, a precarious landscape. for the remainder of his term until 2023, analysts warned on Monday.
Guzmán, who has been with the president since taking office in December 2019, resigned on Saturday over a lack of political support for his plan to reduce the fiscal deficit and control inflation, which has stood at 30% so far this year. Nearly gathered. It was the end of a busy week in which financial markets also patted their back with a sharp rise in the country’s risk appetite, a fall in Argentine bonds abroad and a dollar in the informal exchange market.
The now former minister was supported by the President, despite frequent public attacks by former President and current Vice President Fernández de Kirchner (2007–2015) against the government’s economic policy and the agreement made by the Economist with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). To refinance the loan of $45,000 million.
Guzmán’s resignation represents a new loss for the president, who had already faced the departure of other officials of his closest faith, while the appointment of Silvina Batakis to the economy ministry with the support of the vice president advances the Kirchnerist wing. Reveals the government.
For political analyst and historian Rosando Fraga, “the political defeat of the president is evident with the departure of Guzmán and the arrival of Batakis”, a heretical economist – one who believes in state intervention in the economy – with long experience in public administration. and similar to the populist policies of Kirchnerism. “The vice president does not rule, but his influence in power is increasing.”
“There is no agreement (between the president and his vice president), there is a ceasefire and it is fragile,” he warned.
Mariel Fornoni, director of the Management and Fit consulting firm, said that “Alberto Fernández’s weakness is extreme and what remains of the government can be considered Kirchnerism.”
For the expert, this new crisis in the cabinet “only deepens the breakdown of (governing) Fronte de Todos and can bring with it confidence and expectations.”
According to measurements by Management & Fit, until Guzmán’s resignation, 8 out of 10 Argentines had a negative view of the situation in the country and 7 out of 10 believed it was about to get worse.
Fernández has a year and a half in office with little popular support to aspire for re-election, the lurking threat of hyperinflation and an internal conflict with his political partner that does not seem to be resolved despite Guzmán’s departure. That, in turn, requires the government to meet a series of goals agreed with the IMF to avoid default.
“There is zero room for maneuver for the president in front of 2023, this is a presidency that is already over,” said Patricio Gisto, director of the Political Diagnosis consultancy. “The only question remains whether he will be able to fulfill the mandate. The question about Christina is whether she wants to take power before 2023 with all these steps. I’m inclined to yes.”
For Sergio Berensztyn, this elevation of Vice President to the Ministry of Economy also poses a risk to him. “Until now, the Vice President has tried to avoid direct involvement in economic management … this change with Batakis. Whatever happens, the crisis now belongs to Christina Kirchner as well,” he assured.