Monday, October 2, 2023

Argentina votes: Milei and Massa celebrate third place?

Milei leads the voting intention, Bullrich is the one who has gained the most individually and Massa could come third.

Still with the election image of Chaco in the retina, where Together for change broke and consolidated a 17-year hegemony of Peronism sixth victory in gubernatorial election and the fifth province in which it replaces a government of the current national ruling party, we analyze the numbers from two surveys conducted this week by pollsters Zuban-Córdoba and Opina Argentina.

The post-STEP effect

According to the work of Zubán-Córdoba, carried out on the basis of 1,400 cases throughout the country with a sampling error of +/- 2.6%, the dynamics of the projected image of politicians to voters took over logic again after the primaries of choice, that is, Everyone once again had a more negative than positive image.

The example locations of Opina Argentina Javier Miley Today with 34% intention to vote This represents a growth of around 4.1% compared to what was achieved in the PASO. It also shows an upward movement by the Minister of Economic Affairs, Sergio Massa which expands its base by 7.57% and reaches 29% of 21.43%, which it consolidated at the individual level in the first instance of elections.

Bullrich, the one who has grown the most individually

The Together for Change candidate, who received 16.81% of the vote in the primary, would, according to the Opina Argentina poll led by Facundo Nejamkis – 25%. Despite being relegated in terms of value added, it is a not insignificant fact that the former Minister of Security during the government of Mauricio Macri is the one with the greatest individual growth, from August 13th to today 8.19 points.

The question that JxC will answer in the election campaign is not an easy one: How to channel the power of an armed group that could rule up to ten provinces from December around a presidential political project that appeals to a citizenry that does not believes in traditional politics? Currently, Bullrich began his tour of the country.

Milei has no roof for the time being

Returning to Zubán-Córdoba’s work, it was found that 6.5 out of 10 Argentines believe that “the traditional leadership has done things very badly and that is why Milei is the electoral option.” This open process in which the libertarian Candidate has also demonstrated the ability to manage centrality, making the possibility of projecting a “vote cap” impossible.

Will he make it before 40% or will he be able to win in the first round as predicted by Peruvian journalist Jaime Bayly?

What about Massa?

Although today Opina Argentina classifies Massa as a Unión por la Patria candidate with 29% and even 62% of the population agrees with the reduction in income tax introduced by the incumbent minister, The impression is that the power of the government spending apparatus is not enough to guarantee the holder of the economic portfolio even in a possible runoff election.

The absolute growth of the Unión por la Patria is 1.72%. brought onto the streets with a “small change plan”. This represents the same budget deficit as the one committed to the IMF: 1.9%. Another cost factor for the campaign that doubles the budget gap expected from the Peronism 2023 ballot initiative.

Nation World News Desk
Nation World News Desk
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