Thursday, September 23, 2021

Bank of America predicts oil could reach $100 a barrel in case of severe winter cold snap

Analysts at Bank of America said in a note quoted by Reuters that oil prices could rise above $100 a barrel in colder-than-normal conditions.

Analysts at Bank of America wrote in a September 10 note that in the event of a major winter cold snap, global crude demand could rise by as much as 2 million barrels per day (bpd), pushing oil prices to as low as $100 a barrel. Can send above mark. , according to Reuters.

While analysts had predicted that Brent crude prices would be around $70 a barrel by the end of this year, rising risks pushed it to $75 a barrel by the end of the year.

Noting downside risks to the outlook such as “the COVID-19 wave, taper tantrums, a China debt crisis, and the withdrawal of Iranian crude barrels”, analysts wrote that “winter weather risks could quickly become the most important driver of energy”. market.”

Meanwhile, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects Brent prices to remain near current levels for the rest of the year, averaging $71 a barrel during the fourth quarter of 2021. At the same time, the EIA predicts that global production growth will continue to grow. Slow demand to push Brent prices to an average of $66 a barrel in 2022. The agency forecasts WTI crude prices to average $62.37 a barrel in 2022, down from $65.69 in 2021.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Monday raised its projection for global oil demand in 2022 on the back of a Bank of America oil price forecast on strong economic recovery prospects, while revising its demand expectations for the final quarter. did. This year due to factors related to the pandemic.

OPEC said in its monthly market report released on September 13 that it expects oil demand to average 99.70 million barrels per day (bpd) in the fourth quarter of 2021, down 110,000 bpd from last month’s estimates.

OPEC said in the report, “The increased risk of Kovid-19 cases is driving the prospects of fuel oil demand mainly by the delta variant in the last quarter of the year.”

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“As a result, oil demand is slightly lower adjusted in the second half of 2021, partly because the recovery in oil demand is delayed into the first half of 2022.”

At the same time, OPEC expects the world’s thirst for oil to increase by 4.2 million bpd to 100.8 million bpd in 2022, mostly on the back of a “stable economic outlook across all sectors”. The upward revision for 2022 is 980,000 bpd from last month’s estimate and a rebound in demand above pre-pandemic levels.

OPEC forecasts a 4.2 percent increase in global GDP in 2022, with the cartel warning that there are risks to this approach.

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“A further increase in COVID-19 infections, particularly given the upcoming winter season in the Northern Hemisphere, could undercut current growth projections,” OPEC said in the report. “Close monitoring is required.”

Meanwhile, US retail petrol prices hit their highest level in seven years. For the week of September 6, the national average for a gallon of regular gasoline rose from a seven-year high of $3.176 to $3.176, according to the EIA, which forecast that hurricane-related supply disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico will occur in the near future. Prices will remain under pressure.

Retail gasoline prices are expected to average $3.14 a gallon in September, according to the agency’s most recent short-term energy outlook, for drivers hoping for relief before falling to an average of $2.91 a gallon in the fourth quarter of this year. is an encouraging sign. Pump.

Tom Ozimek has an extensive background in journalism, deposit insurance, marketing and communications, and adult education. The best writing advice he’s heard from Roy Peter Clark: ‘Hit your goal’ and ‘Leave the best for last.’


This News Originally From – The Epoch Times

Bank of America predicts oil could reach $100 a barrel in case of severe winter cold snap
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