It is best said that to predict the future is to work and know the present. Álvaro Manteca, head of BBVA’s Private Banking Strategy in Spain, wanted to talk about the grocery store and market outlook for 2023, in which BBVA Research updated its global forecast for 2023 up to 2.8%, from the previous 2.3%. For Spain, it now looks forward to 2023 by 1.6%, four tenths above its previous one. Finally, negative growth is no longer expected for the Euro area, but GDP will grow by 0.6% in 2023. However, growth in 2024 is slightly down in almost all geographies, although 3.3% of the world GDP is foreseen, as a weakness in the developed world. areas of strength in China is offset.
BBVA Research considers the favorable development of energy prices, especially natural gas, together with the Chinese to cancel, after no reason for the COVID-19, potentially removing adverse scenarios for the European economy.
2013, the year of improvement
Our markets portfolios start 2023 with a better position. Although between 2022 we were cautious in relation to the financial situation, the fact is that we are beginning to perceive a somewhat more constructive tone in the global risk scenario. In general, inflation allows us to wait for a pause in the tightening of financial banks, something that allows us to control it before it creates a deep economic recession, in addition to the role that China played and the growth that affects globally.
We believe that this year will be better than 2022 for almost all financial matters. Each with their own risk aversion, there are opportunities in fixed and variable returns, being cautious and maintaining a high level of diversification.
Interest rates, growth and energy sector
The opinion is that inflation will follow a sharp downward trend in 2023, but in a way that will not be linear and will cause economic instability. Also, central banks remain committed to the fight against inflation and are still aware of existing economic risks.
There are two lessons in the market: on the one hand, the monetary authorities do not believe that the stability of the financial system is at risk, on the other hand, they continue to consider inflation to be the main problem at hand. 2023. At this time the maximum discounted rate H will be close to 5% and the ECB deposit will reach 3.5% in the first half of the year.
Anthony Garcia BBVA South Territorial Private Banking Director
“In uncertain times the key is to talk to our customers.”
Based on the raw materials section of the energy sector, its development still has hidden risks. Much of today’s disinflation is based on declining oil and natural gas prices. In other words, in order for inflation to continue its downward trend in the coming months, oil prices will remain at levels far from the highest they have been in the summer months. As for natural gas, European gas prices are now below €45 per megawatt/hour, below the levels that existed before the Ukrainian invasion. In summary, a relatively mild winter in Europe, along with natural gas reserves at much higher levels than usual for this time of year, were the main drivers for the fall in prices.
2022, difficult and turbulent
Antonio García Preciados, BBVA Southern Territorial Director of Private Banking, wanted to give his perspective on 2022, difficult and turbulent. Our business is very close to the development of the market and the uncertainty that has characterized the management of clients and their investments. Our priority has been to be closer to our clients, to keep them permanently informed in order to make the best investment decisions.
Alvarus Manteca Head of Private Banking Strategy at BBVA in Spain
“This year is going to be better than 2022 for almost all financial assets.”
It has grown significantly in business and also logically, this growth in the number of clients has also been accompanied by an increase in the number of private bankers, ending at 678 at the end of December 2022. The growth of the team has been very substantial. In the next two years, with more than 200 new banks throughout Spain (+29.3% in 6 years) and 180 points of sale where we offer our services, we are one of the entities with the highest capillarity in Spain. The Southern Territorial Directorate has 64 bankers and directors dedicated to Private Banking.
In times of uncertainty, such as the present, it is important to have a conversation with our clients, who require closeness, trust to provide them with security and professionalism, and therefore find their goals and time perspective, our mission. the best opportunities within the environment that the customer tells his Investing in the long term, with variety and with the appropriateness of the risk profile of each client is always the best option and opportunity.
Challenges and megatrends
At BBVA, in the last few years we have been able to offer our investment megatrends clients a high quality risk-adjusted return. They are divided into: sustainable investment: environmental and social impact; Demographic and social changes; Consumption and lifestyle; New technological trends and Health.
All in all, megatrends, as you said, constitute a very interesting long-term gain. Thematic research seeks to capture growth by analyzing companies and business models that are positively impacted by these trends.
At BBVA Banca Privada, it seems appropriate to use thematic investment as a “complementary satellite” with the most structural portfolio of our clients. This means investing in assets that involve exposure to some long-term trend, with the goal of obtaining a higher return than would be achieved by investing using a traditional index. Among them is, for example, cybersecurity.
The world of cybersecurity
For Patricia de Arriaga, Deputy General Manager at Pictet Asset Management, the trend is exponential. Expenditures and budgets for cyber-security solutions are growing at around 10% per year. Together with innovation, with cybersecurity, we achieve protection for our customers, and achieve maximum security in all our digital and computer business and operations. Not to mention computer, physical security and service.
Spain and Baetica
– BBVA Private Banking Evolution is satisfying. In Spain, at the end of 2022, assets under management stood at 100,952 million coins and the number of clients stood at 109,290. These figures represent an increase of 9% and 65% compared to December 2021.
– Baetica. In the case of Andalusia, the assets under management weigh about 7.2% of the volume at the national level, which means a management volume of more than 7,200 million European coins.
— Southern territorial inscription. It includes the autonomous communities of Baetica and Extremadura and the autonomous cities of Ceuta and Melilla, the figures for assets under management in the Private Banking business represent 8% of the national volume (8,100 million euros).
