The market fluctuates up and down to the extent of the banking crisis, which began ten years ago in the US and the policy of central banks, which continue to adjust their financial cycles despite the turmoil in the financial sector. We talked about all this and how it affects the main American index and our Ibex 35 with Sergio Avila, IG analyst.
H rose to 25 basis points, with Powell dismissing the possibility that this concern is worsening the situation for banks. However, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced that the Department would not unilaterally make its decision to guarantee all bank deposits without the approval of Congress, which would cause the market to wobble. How do you see the Wall Street indices? What key steps should we observe both high and low?
If you look at the future funds H, which is ultimately what the market thinks about the interest rate, you see that at the next meeting on May 3, the rates are expected to remain unchanged between 4.75 and 5% as 56% Probably; in June, with a probability of 51%, it is expected that it will also remain at 4.75-5%; and as of July of the same year 2023, the probability should have already increased to 47.2%. But it is true that Yellen’s words have increased the pressure on investors and they think that the banking crisis is not over and that the problem could be on the table, and the market is a vessel of cold water.
We have the S&P 500 which resistance was found precisely at the measurement level of the 50 period, it left us a candle with a long upper light and in that sense I would now look at the support zone, the low of the truth in the 22nd is a clue; if it had lost that level, then we would have had support in the index that joins the smallest increase in prices after the third day of March, which would be the first time to observe the first floor. And above we must see the direction that joins the great declines to overcome, so that again to receive the opening levels of March 22. That is where we have a key zone of resistance. There is still more strength in the NASDAQ; What the market does not believe is that there will not be a drop in interest rates in the most exposed sectors of interest, such as technology, like utilities, and in that sense. NASDAQ at the moment has a very tight and clear support in the premises of the session on Wednesday 22 at 12,544, as long as there is no question above, in the event that it loses those levels we would have the next support zone. at 12,398 then the support pin, which concerns me the most, and that is the trend in the short term in the NASDAQ, which is bullish, would lose 11,774 if it claims that level. the contempt would change the whole. In the case of Russell 2022, which is an index of small North American companies and is the one that also marks something of the breadth of the market, in the area of 1,694. The Russell is quite oversold, which is could be support that could be; If we were to lose it, we would put ourselves in a worse position and think that the breadth of the market would continue to deteriorate, and that very probably we could see the index around 1,630 per year. If we were to calm the spirit again in the financial crisis, we would have resistance at 1,794 and, if it is overcome, it would be most normal to look for an average of 200, at 18,831, and if it is. won, area 1,882 So for a moment there is calm in the market.
If we look at Europe, and the selective Spanish one in particular, the situation is not much different as far as the various cases are concerned. Moreover, it does not seem to have lost the necessary selective support.
IBEX has just left us with the support that was previously resisted, the August 2022 resistance, at exactly 8,534. But now the fear of an economic crisis marks a certain caution, a certain period of calm. For me, in order for the Ibex 35 to be out of danger, he should recover the zone 9,176 again, because otherwise there is a risk that he could return to look for the bleats, 8,494 and if he lost those bleats, he could move another one unprepared. impact Ibex 35 has a lot exposed to the banks, which are now at the center of everything that is going on, so some caution should be used. It should recover the area of 9,190 to be completely calm again in the short, medium and long term. In the medium term it is true that the trend is still bullish and in the long term the same is indicated.
It is true that Ibex banks give us one stone and one sand every day… Investors who are inside are worried and some are considering leaving because of the panic that has been created during the financial crisis. After all, the triumphant end of the journey of the sector star of the year in the stock market, at least for the moment. Against this background, it is logical to ask what should be done now with the actions of the banks.
The bank benefited from the rise in interest rates, thinking it would increase trade margins and therefore profits, which was a positive side. The negative side is the exposure that banks have to fixed income, which in this case, if interest rates rise, latent losses can materialize in long-term portfolios. It is true that the situation in Europe is less than the banks of North America and especially the regional banks, we are calmer there. On the other hand, if the market begins to benefit from this interest, it will be possible to see it sooner rather than later, because the economy will eventually begin to have more problems than what is being spent, we no longer have that idea that the banks can continue. to produce their income according to rising interest rates. If we look at the graph for a certain Ibexis bank, for example BBVA; if this bank recovered the 6.95 zone, the risk would end, but as long as it remains below that zone, caution must be exercised because we could bear the first attack. For now, what we can suggest now is that BBVA is not losing at the 6.21 level; If he loses it, I’ll start to worry a little more, because things can get complicated.
IAG drew annual highs at the end of January at 1.95 cents. Since then, he has had two months of falls that have caused him to lose more than 18%. But at the beginning of this week, we saw a purchase entry. Could he see the value rebound in the short term?
Interesting what I did to IAG. When it follows in October, it has risen very strongly and is approaching the stock index, which connected the main points of the whole stock trend before the first of April, and also broke the stock tank at the top, which gave a very good feeling. Technically, the theory tells us that when this happens, we tend to think positively, but it is true that after recent events, such as the correction, which can be thought of as a kind of unprepared re-traction. indexes the former is the decreasing maximum. The key for me is that 1.47 does not lose the coin, as long as it remains above 1.47, I try to hold it to see if it actually regains a positive tone again. It’s a cyclical company, it’s a valuation that depends a lot on the economic cycle in terms of success, so it can come under pressure if the market starts to think that we could be entering a financial crisis sooner rather than later. But now, the future demand is expected to be positive, this year it is also expected that the benefits of the company will be strong. So if it remains in the 1.46 index area, we would think that this could simply be a pull-back to continue trying, and if it loses that area, we will really start to worry. If it had started to recover again from the highs, if it had recovered the area of 1.6610 coins, we could be bullish again, for the time being cautiously.