Thursday, June 1, 2023

Board predicts second worst grain harvest of decade due to drought

The countryside of Castilla y León is dying of thirst. The board has already confirmed it “catastrophe” in yield predictions Designed by the Agrarian Technological Institute of Castilla y León (Itacyl) together with AEMET, which provides Second worst wheat and barley crop in the last decade.

Itacyl calculation that yields wheat They will be at 80 percent of the average for a standard crop, a figure that was only worse in the last decade, when it reached 72 percent in 2017. Similarly, in barley The forecast is even less pleasant for this year with a forecast of 78 percent, which is even worse than six seasons ago, when it was 62 percent.

These estimates, which are based on presentations in the community over the past 30 years, are provisional and In the absence of rain, they get spoiled every day. As an example of the times to come, it should be remembered that the worst year of the decade, 2017, with current permits, collected a little over 2.5 million tons of grain, when the average harvest was more than six million. community.

The rainfall map provided by Itasil makes clear the problem for the community and a good part of Spain. In this regard, it indicates that in most areas of Castilla y León the precipitation falls at a value of 75 percent of the average. in the last 30 years, but in a large strip running from north to south through the center-east of Soria, it stands at 50 percent, north of Burgos on the border with Palencia; and a part northeast of Leon. There is a small area in the south center of Segovia where it does not even reach 25 percent.


Despite the fact that this overall result is already worrying, maps managed by Itasil show some of the areas where the situation is destructive overtones As in the entire center-east of Soria, in a strip from north to south of the province, where yields alternate between 50 and 25 percent of the average, even the southernmost region is located in Tierra de Medinaceli. where it drops to 15 per cent, ie there are areas where the entire crop is already considered lost.

The Itasil maps place most of the area in the range of 75 percent compared to the average of the last 30 years, but this drops to 50 percent in Burgos from north to south in La Bureba and the area between Sedano and Las Loras; Most of Avila and Segovia south of Valladolid and west to center and east of Salamanca.

On the other hand, forecast maps for the start of harvest, where it occurs, indicate that, for wheat, in the Tierra de Campos region, a large part of Avila and Salamanca, it falls mainly between five and eight days. ; Whereas in the west of Segovia and Soria, it reaches 12 days, as in most of Zamora and north of Salamanca, Burgos, Palencia and León. In the west, in the province of León and Zamora, the advance is between 18 and 22 days.

As far as barley is concerned, an advance of eight days is estimated for most of the community, reaching up to 12 in a good part of León and north of Zamora, and the border between the two provinces at La Cabrera. But, progress is between 18 and 22 days. ,

Percentage of grains with respect to the average of 30 years

Regional analysis

A provincial analysis of the crop shows that in wheat, Soria is the province most affected by drought conditions, with yields estimated at 68 percent of average, the lowest figure for the decade, and only worse than in 2005 in 30 years. Done (57) and 2012 (58). In barley, the situation is worse with 67 per cent, which was lower in three decades only in 2005 (50) and 2012 (54).

The situation in Segovia is also disastrous, with 77 percent of the average wheat yield, the worst data of the decade. Furthermore, in barley, the data stand at 75 percent, which is lower only in 2005, when it was 56 percent, within the 30-year series provided by Itasil.

In Avila, the yield of wheat is 72 per cent and it was worse in 2019 with 69 per cent. Meanwhile, barley is expected at 69 percent, also only above the 2019 figure of 68 percent and the fourth worst in 30 years.

Burgos will also be one of the provinces most affected by drought conditions. In wheat, as always according to Itasil, this will be the worst crop of the decade with a yield of 80 percent of the average of the past 30 years, worse than 2017, with 85. In barley, the percentage is also estimated at 80 percent, currently the worst percentage ahead of similar data for 2017, and only down from 2005’s 68 percent in the past three decades.

In Lyon, Itasil estimates an average yield of 91 percent of the average. The decade has the third worst record, compared to 61 percent in 2017 and 90 percent in 2022. Barley is expected to account for 87 percent, the fourth worst record in the past ten years, behind 2015 (85), 2017 (57) and 2022 (84).

In Palencia, it is estimated to be 84 percent of the average wheat crop, the second but lowest figure after 2017’s 64 percent. In barley, the percentage is set at 82 per cent, the fourth lowest in the decade compared to 2015 (78). 2017 (50) and 2022 881).

In Salamanca, the second worst wheat harvest in the last ten years is also expected, with a yield of 81 percent of the average (100), similar to 2015, and only 66 percent worse in 2019. For barley, the yield is 78 percent of the average, behind only the figures for 2017 (65) and 2019 (61).

In Valladolid province, wheat yields are expected at 83 percent of average, a figure that is the fourth lowest in the decade compared to 2017 (46), 2019 (70) and 2022 (81). Compared to 2015 (73), 2017 (38) and 2019 (78) and 2022 (81), barley is estimated at 82 percent of the average yield, which is but a fifth of the decade.

In Zamora, the percentage is 82 percent of the average, well above 2017 (63), 2019 (72) and 2022 (73), also the fourth worst record in ten years. In barley, 81 per cent is given, the fifth worst data in ten years after 2015 (66), 2017 (39), 2019 (77) and 2022 (75).

Political context

In this context, it is worth recalling that the Board called upon the agriculture professional organizations to address the farmers’ problems in the Agriculture Council meeting on next Thursday, May 18 at 12:30 pm. Dry In the countryside of Castilla y León.

The president of ASJA, Donasiano Dujo, the regional coordinator of the UCCL, Jesus Manuel-González Palacin, and the man in charge of La Alizan UPA-COAG Lorenzo Rivera told Ical that they would demand drought declaration In rain deficient areas, the introduction of direct assistance, Specific assistance for supply of fodder and water to animals, and administrative flexibility in application of CAP.

President of the Junta and PP of Castilla y León, Alfonso Fernández Manuco, has already raised the possibility of improving the financing of the sector, Estimating CAP payments to agriculture and livestock professionals and to help and encourage the purchase of insurance to mitigate losses due to drought. We will have to see how this is reflected in an agreement with the sector next Thursday.

For its part, the government took steps to support the sector already facing a dire situation with the approval last Thursday of a royal decree-law within the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food Are. global commodity of 784 million, of which the largest amount will be Direct assistance to the scope of 636 million.

Nation World News Desk
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