The European Commission estimates that the Spanish economy will grow by 2.2% in 2023, representing an increase of three tenths compared to 1.9% in the spring forecast and also above the forecasts of the eurozone and the European Union as a whole, both with a growth forecast of 0.8%, and implying a reduced, respectively, by three and two tenths compared to the May predictions.
Spain thus leads the growth forecast in 2023 in the six largest economies of the EU, including Germany (-0.4%), France (1%), Italy (0.9%), the Netherlands (0.5%) and Poland (0 ,5%).
However, in 2024, real GDP growth in Spain is expected to moderate to 1.9%, compared to 2% expected in the spring, a slowdown explained in Brussels to the weakening of economic activity expected at the end of the current year, which will last at least until the first half of 2024. The forecast changes downwards the economic growth of the EU from the expected 1.7 % in the spring up to 1.4%, as well as in the euro zone, which fell from 1.6% to 1.3% in 2024.
The Executive of the community also predicted a Spain’s inflation drops to 3.6% for the current year, four tenths below the reduction predicted in May for 2023, while the reduction forecast increased by two tenths, to 2.9% for 2024.
This number, moreover, well below the community’s inflation forecast, which is expected to be located at 6.5% throughout the European Union in 2023 – compared to the previous forecast of 6.7% – and decreased to 3.2% in 2024, also one tenth below the forecasts of May.
Regarding the eurozone, inflation has been revised downward for 2023 compared to spring, from 5.8% to 5.6% for 2023, but it has risen by a tenth and increased to 2.9% for 2024.
This new slowdown is expected despite the upward pressure derived from the expected gradual loss of government measures used to mitigate the impact of high energy prices.
Core inflation will decline more slowly, excluding energy and food, as the impact of high prices will continue in the first half of 2023.
Community services explained that the delay in summer economic forecasts, which are usually published in July, allows important data published during the summer to be taken into account, including information on real GDP growth in the third quarter and inflation in August to offer a more accurate picture of the economic situation and prospects for the fall.