Bitcoin (BTC) starts the new week with consolidation in the air amid some of the least volatile conditions in its history.
Despite losing 5% in the last week, following Bitcoin’s volatile failure is on the trader’s mind.
The question is whether that change will happen in the coming days.
There are many potential catalysts, from macroeconomic data to exchange setups and more, but which one will win and which side will send the price of BTC remains to be seen.
Behind the scenes of the fundamentals of the Bitcoin network, it is business as usual, with miners maintaining their new dynamism and preparing to hit the hardest new time constraints.
Let’s take a look at the key factors that are moving the market and summarize views on how BTC price action could shape up this week.
Bitcoin price remains stable since last week
While anything can and does happen with Bitcoin, the weekend was marked by one word when it came to price action: boring.
After sudden volatility on March 3 due to a combination of concerns from Silvergate Bank and margin calls from exchanges, the BTC/USD pair remained flat.
Data from Cointelegraph Pro and TradingView markets support this, as the spot price has moved within a barely perceptible range.
But the bulls couldn’t recover much of the lost ground, leading Bitcoin to end the week down about 5.1% on Bitstamp.
BTC/USD 1 week candlestick chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView
Michael van de Poppe, an occasional Cointelegraph contributor as well as the founder and CEO of the trading firm Octo, still has reason to believe that the market will soon draw a line under the trend near the current limit.
“Bitcoin’s price action is breaking due to a correction, but still bearing support here.” he said to his disciples on Twitter on the 6th of kal.
“They have already set the index and will look to continue this. It could take another trip to the bend and then go back higher, the time of trouble is missing $21,500.”
Chart for BTC/USD pair. Source: Michaël van de Poppe on Twitter
Other publication he pointed to a potential current target at $23,000 if the bulls regained some strength.
“I just want to see some price movement today to be honest” continuous A popular Crypto trader song.
“I’ve been staying clear for a few days now with my stop loss at $23,200. I’d like to see a move to $22,800 before anyone dips.”
Chart for BTC/USD pair. Source: Crypto Tony on Twitter
The report, Daan Crypto Trade, noted that the BTC/USD pair has closed a small gap in CME futures from the weekend.
You need to pass $22,000 or $22,650 for Bitcoin to give the “clear part”.
$BTC Quickly closed the gap for the most part. There is a tiny gap open of about $20 but we see that quite often. Would not value it too much personally.
Anyways, still in chop/range mode so no clear direction until a clean break of 22000 or 22650 in my opinion. https://t.co/tOigpLO71q pic.twitter.com/Wu1J7Bjxdg
— Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) March 6, 2023
For Skew trading support, a weekly open of around $22,300 should act as a “wave” for short-term price action.
“This weekly open price will likely trade pivot for the 1-day weekly chart ($19,000) otherwise below the high confirmation above $23,000,” it read. Tweet in the record chart
“We are currently in a turbulent zone. (Tomorrow’s weakness or strength will be key to momentum/direction).”
Chart for BTC/USD pair. Source: Skew on Twitter
All eyes are on Powell as the microphone nods to return
The macroeconomic panorama begins to warm up in the next few days after a cold week, with Jerome Powell, the president of the United States of America, who will have to give an opinion in two rounds.
Powell’s words before the US House of Representatives Committee on Financial Services, a classic source of market volatility, could change the general mood – at least briefly – in terms of his language regarding future economic policy.
It is, in particular, interest rates, since H has rejected the next rate hike decision in two weeks.
“Volume expects Bitcoin to pick up mid-next week on Powell’s testimony” confirmed Crypto angel trader, analyst and investor Santa in part of the weekend’s Twitter posts.
Popular research showed that the Tedtalksmacro program was also at the bottom of the non-funding campaign and Japan’s syngraph announcement and press conference at the end of the week as critical points.
Key is certainly a week ahead
Key events for the week ahead 👇
Tuesday – RBA statement/presser + Powell testifies to the Senate Banking Committee.
Wednesday – ECB's Lagarde + Fed's Powell speak
Friday – Bank of Japan statement/presser
Friday – US NFP employment data— tedtalksmacro (@tedtalksmacro) March 5, 2023
As Cointelegraph reported, central liquidity decisions by non-US banks are increasingly seen as a major part of the Bitcoin market.
“Dollar liquidity grows only in March (~+100 billion deposits)” added Tedtalks macro.
“Liquidity comes first, price comes next!”
According to the CME Group FedWatch tool, the odds of the Fed raising rates another 50 basis points in March, up from 25 basis points previously, stood at 28.6% as of March 6.
H target rate probability chart. Source: CME Group
Design foundations for new all-time highs
Another adjustment, another high time: When it comes to Bitcoin difficulty, there is only one way.
The latest data from BTC.com confirms that by the end of this week the difficulty will rise by 1% to new record levels of 43.5 trillion.
This feat is no small feat, as it comes at a time when the BTC/USD pair has been consolidating for several weeks and miners’ profit margins remain slim.
However, the relay rate shows that the mining competition is also on a steady upward trend. Raw data estimated by MiningPoolStats put the hash rate at 320 exahashes per second as of March 6.
On its part, the chain analysis company Glassnode shared the profit statistics of Bitcoin miners, which has been remarkably recovered compared to the middle of 2022.
We can use a similar methods to assess a suite of #Bitcoin mining metrics for the ASIC fleet:
– Estimate global power consumption
– Revenue per rig per day (BTC and USD)
– Break-even Operational costsFind out more in our #Bitcoin ASIC fleet dashboard
🪟https://t.co/L56fbrsENa pic.twitter.com/uNuyOFAI5h— glassnode (@glassnode) March 5, 2023
Other data show that miners have not yet started a firm peak trend in current prices, although they have risen 40% compared to the beginning of the year.
For 30 days, the balance of BTC miners dropped in March.
Funding rates are expected to be inviting
In the derivatives markets, analysts indicate a possible repeat of the conditions that sent the BTC/USD pair to its February highs above $25,000.
This is mainly due to the funds that have been negative twice since BTC’s 5% price drop last week.
“Bitcoin funding rates are doing the same as Ethereum currently, it went negative two times after the pump a few days ago.” he said DecenTrader trading suite in 6 cal.
“Prior to this, the fund was close to negative before rallying to $25,000 on February 12.”
Bitcoin weighted average funding on the chart. Source: Decentrader on Twitter
On the road, however, the ratio of long to short positions remains “stubborn”; added DecenTrader, with two long all short “typically higher than usual Bitcoin”.
Ratio of long & short Bitcoin positions. Source: Decentrader on Twitter
Cointelegraph has published a guide that explains mutual funds and how they work in detail.
The confidence index sets the 6-week low
With a sharper reversal than the price action would suggest, the outlook for the cryptocurrency market is increasingly shedding any hope of hope this month.
According to the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, the mood in the country is now “moderate” while the income is approaching “fear”.
Reading 47/100, the index’s lowest level since mid-January over the weekend.
As Cointelegraph reported, researchers are also questioning the extent of the new cryptocurrency freeze, arguing that the market’s reaction to the Argentgate incident was disproportionate.
“At the moment, traders are more nervous about going long or short in the market,” said Santiment, the research firm that released the results.
Santiment added that that view isn’t necessarily an accurate reflection of market forces, given the aforementioned bottom line situation.
“Therefore, there can be something fishy with an inflated amount of negative opinions, although the perpetual contracts of funds in the exchanges do not necessarily match the opinions,” he concludes.
Crypto Fear & Greed Index Source: Alternative.me
The views, thoughts and opinions expressed herein are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
