Jan 23 – The probability that the United States is either already in recession or slipping into recession this year has dropped from nearly two-thirds to 56% over the past three months, according to a Business Situation survey released Monday.
About 53% of those surveyed by the National Association of Business Economics (Will not done3% said they expected above average that the United States would enter a recession in the next 12 months, while 3% indicated they thought the country was already in a recession.
in the last survey Will not donePublished in October, 64% of those polled indicated that the US economy was either already in a recession or had a more than equal chance of entering one in the next 12 months.
has a total of 60 members Will not done Those who work for private sector companies or industry associations responded to the latest survey conducted January 4-11.
The survey also showed respondents expect inflation to ease across their businesses and industries, with the forward-looking gauge of prices falling 10 percentage points from the previous survey to its lowest reading since October 2020.
The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by a quarter percentage point at its Jan. 31-Feb. 1 policy meeting as it nears a stalemate in its rate hikes now that high inflation is on the decline.
The US central bank last year raised rates at the fastest pace since the 1980s, hitting a 40-year high in an effort to tame inflation. Inflation, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure, remains nearly three times the central bank’s 2% target.
The latest economic data show that inflation continues to decline and that consumer and producer prices, profits and wages are rising at a slower pace, raising hopes that inflation can be brought under control without triggering a recession.