A new opinion poll on Wednesday showed that the approval rate for the removal of California Governor Gavin Newsom (Gavin Newsom) is still far below the majority required to overthrow him two weeks before the election day, and that the voter turnout is against him. Democratic voters who are vital to their survival are paying attention.
this Poll by the California Institute of Public Policy It was found that out of 1,080 possible California voters, only 39% would vote to remove Newsom, which is the same as 40% of those surveyed in May and March, and 58% opposed. Nearly half of the people said that they would either not vote for-or have not yet decided-the 46 candidates who wanted to replace him in the vote.
Mark Baldassare, President and CEO of PPIC, said: “Not only do Democrats and Republicans have serious differences on these issues, but over time, they have expressed their views on Newsom’s leadership. There has also been almost no change in the views of the level. This is a clear sign of our highly partisan era.”
Although most public opinion surveys have found that there are more opposition to the recall than support, there are several public opinion surveys that show that competition is more intense.A sort of Trafalgar Group Poll From August 26th to 29th, among the 1,088 possible voters, it was found that 44.4% would vote for it and 52% would oppose the removal.A sort of SurveyUSA poll From August 26 to 28, among 816 possible and actual voters, it was found that 43% would recall Newsom and 51% would remain in office.A sort of CBS News YouGov Poll From August 6th to 12th, of the 1,534 possible voters, 48% would remove Newsom and 52% would keep him.
Hoover Institute researcher Bill Whelen is an adviser to former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, who was the Republican winner of the last recall election in 2003 to oust Democrat Gray Davis. He said the findings Reflects the advantages of the Democratic Party’s party registration and the lack of fascinating challengers.
Whelan said that California’s political party registrations are about 46% of Democrats, 24% of Republicans, and 23% of non-partisanship preferences, which automatically gives the Democratic Party a 22% advantage in the election. He said that by comparison, the difference in 2003 was 43% of Democrats and 35% of Republicans, a difference of 8 percentage points.
“If you have more Republicans voting, you can close the gap, but at 22 points, you must have a very positive Republican foundation and a calm Democratic foundation,” Whelan said.
Anne Hyde Dunsmore, the campaign manager of California Rescue Operations, is skeptical of the polls and questioned its methods.
“What we see is a high level of enthusiasm for the recall, which does not match these numbers,” Dunsmore said. “We are cautiously optimistic. But we did not get to where we are because of optimism. When we came here, people told us it was impossible.”
Whalen said that this year’s recall work was further hindered by what he called the lack of the “Arnold factor”-the Arnold factor is a glamorous star in action movie classics, such as “Terminator”, and he immediately attracted voters and the media.
The PPIC poll found that if Newsom is recalled, only Republican radio host Larry Elder among those scrambling to replace him has received double-digit support, with 26% of possible voters saying They will vote for him. Only 5% said they would vote for former Republican San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer, while 3% voted for Rep. Kevin Kiley, R-Rocklin, and Republican businessman John Cox. Newsom’s overwhelming 2018 They were overwhelmed by the landslide.
Only 1% said they would vote for Republican reality TV star and transgender advocate Caitlin Jenner, while 25% said they would not vote for any alternative candidates on the ballot, and 24% didn’t know Who they will vote for.
Opinion polls found that three-quarters of Democrats said that recalling elections is very important to them, while two-thirds of Republicans and independent voters said.
“The only way for Newsom to fail is if the Democrats do not show up in numbers, and the Republicans do have power,” Whelen said.
Newsom also enjoys a considerable financial advantage, raising nearly $50 million, roughly twice the sum of the recalled supporters and replacement candidates combined. He has been using this money to advertise with National Democrats such as Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, linking the recall with supporters of former Republican President Donald Trump. The latter lost California by two to one in 2020.
In contrast, Whelen said, “You just don’t see the opposition on TV presenting their reasons.”
The PPIC poll found in a larger sample of 1,706 California adults that 47% believed that the state was heading in the right direction, while 43% were in the wrong direction and would most importantly The problems are listed as COVID-19 (21%), employment and economy (12%), and homelessness (11%). The survey found that 53% of people approve of Newson’s work performance and 39% of people disapprove.
Newsom sounded optimistic on Tuesday.
“We are going to take it home, and we are working hard,” Newsom said. “People are very active and very involved in this election, and we see that the gap in the knowledge at stake is shrinking rapidly.”
The PPIC poll has an error of 3.4 percentage points for all California adults and 4.5 percentage points for possible voters. How accurate are the PPIC polls in the past? Baldassare said that in the September 2003 survey, 53% of people said they would vote to remove Davis, and only 26% supported his work performance. Result: 55% of people voted to remove Davis.
But Baldassare also pointed out that more Republicans (54%) and independents (53%) said they were enthusiastic about voting in the elections compared to Democrats (40%). He said that in a special election, this could lead to “a real possibility of political unrest.”
Linda and Don Smith founded the Democratic Radical Club in Brentwood. They feared that the 2016 election would repeat itself when the disadvantaged Donald Trump defeated Democrat Hillary Clinton. Whenever the Smiths are on the counter recall table at the farmers market on Saturday morning, they usually have several people shouting: “Let’s get rid of him!”
“We can’t just sit back and watch,” said Linda Smith, a retired technical consultant, “even in a state of depression.”
Full-time writer Julia Prodis-Sulek contributed to this story.