The final round of the French presidential election on 24 April is a rematch of the runoff between 2017 Emmanuel Macroncurrent office holder, and Marine Le PenA far-flung challenger of the National Front.
The dynamics have changed since his last campaign, when Macron earned 66% of Le Pen’s 33% votes. A photo of the pair is displayed at Le Pen’s – despite Le Pen’s political ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin Website—as well as its anti-immigrant and Euroskeptic positionsmodelers, including those economistThe forecast is that the election will be “tight”.
“I wouldn’t put a lot of money on Macron, but I still think it’s a safe bet,” says Colin BrownA Northeast assistant teaching professor of political science who researches the impact of first and second generation migrants on elections, particularly in Western Europe.
Macron is backed by key challengers, who lost in the first round on Sunday – with the exception of Eric Zemour, who ran to the right of Le Pen. He will face Le Pen in the second and final round.
Le Pen has focused his campaign on inflation and other pocketbook issues. Fearing low turnout concerns That Macron no longer has the passion for support.
Le Pen’s victory cannot be seen as a “bolt out of the blue, the way Brexit or [2016 Donald] Trump was the election,” Brown says. “But it will still be unpredictable.”
spoke with brown news@northeast About the declining role of the major parties, Macron’s distaste and Le Pen’s efforts to normalize his candidacy. His comments have been edited for brevity and clarity.
What is the focus of the election?
The issues that are changing the margins of the parties in power are more important than economic issues.
It really seems to be about pensions and inflation and things like that. And it is associated with a general decline in trusted institutions.
What has changed since the 2017 election?
It is associated with some of the biggest stories in Europe. The main parties are dying. The bipartisan system in France has certainly declined over the past few decades, and it continues in many European countries. In Germany, the two center parties are getting 60% of the vote, where they used to get 90% of the vote; In the Netherlands, the three traditional center parties are getting 35% of the vote, where they used to get 50% of the vote.
This has been part of a general move towards smaller parties in most European countries—most of them are a little ahead [on the edges of the political spectrum] But there is often a more specific issue or important idea as well. Also there has been the rise of protest parties, which in some cases are like the proverbial dog that eventually grabs the car and doesn’t know how to actually deal with the regime.
Macron has made several unpopular decisions; On Tuesday, he sought to garner support from the Left by backing out on his proposal to raise the retirement age from 62 to 65. What has changed for him since his election five years ago?
It is a disconnect between expectations and reality. he preached [in 2017] Change in style – not really populist, but elements of populism. He was very clear that he was center and technical, and there is an inherent tension to that. It may not vehemently oppose migration, but it has also adopted some right-wing language and is offering a more liberal solution.
What role has immigration played in this election?
Immigration is the issue that brings prominence to the national front. That’s what helps them find their footing, and it’s certainly a major marker of support.
But the French presidential campaign doesn’t place much emphasis on migration. And part of this can be seen as a way to expand Le Pen’s reach outside of his traditional electorate. But that doesn’t mean it isn’t an underlying cause. [of her prominence],
Has Le Pen hurt his association with Putin?
I don’t think this is a good look for the average person. I don’t even think it’s in the front of people’s minds.
It matters to some people, and it is one of the things that can prevent him from achieving a majority. Is it enough for people who don’t like any candidate and vote for Macron? In the past, issues like [Putin] Stayed. And I think they probably will be again. But there is no certainty.
In the first round of the election, what was the effect of Zémour, the more correct candidate, than Le Pen?
It helps in bringing his party to the general discussion. I would not say that [the National Front] The country has been sanitized for everyone. But in percentage politics, there are some people who might say, “She’s not that far right. She’s not that crazy.”
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