Although they can come at any time, in Chile the biggest earthquakes always happen evenings and weekends.
Although these are data that have been proven in recent history, no one knows for sure the exact moment when the Earth will shake. However, it is expected that this will not happen forever thanks to the technological advances made in the world and in the national territory.
Can earthquakes be predicted using Artificial Intelligence?
Artificial intelligence can change the uncertainty around earthquakes, as a group of scientists from the University of Texas in Austin, United States, has developed an earthquake predictor.
“Our method is more from the statistical side, but it also uses physics. We analyze data from past earthquakes and in this particular case they are seismic and electromagnetic records,” he explained. Sergey Fomel Professor of Geophysics at the University of Texas.
Over the course of a year, the researchers fed an algorithm with past seismic data from a specific region of China, then trained it to detect changes in real time. Artificial Intelligence is starting to make predictions and, according to the researchers themselves, this new technology hit by several telluric movements a week in advance.
“The success rate is around 70% it is not where we want, we want to be close to 100%, but it is better than the average predictions and gives us hope that this problem, in principle, has a solution,” said Fomel.
It is important to note that Artificial Intelligence successfully predicted 14 earthquakes within a radius of 321 kilometers. The system calculates the location and magnitude of many earthquakes with great accuracy, but missed an earthquake and generated eight false alerts.
“From an academic point of view it is very interesting as a work to find patterns, but in terms of the application to predicting earthquakes it is very ambiguous and there are many remains to be done,” said the geophysicist. Christian Farias.
Japan Earthquake Early Warning System
Although the earthquake predictor is not yet a reality, there are other developments along the same lines and already exist in other countries.
In Japan they have J-Alert, an early warning system implemented in 2007. There are a thousand seismographs installed in different parts of the territory, whose sensors determine when and where movement occurs. Alerts can reach the population up to eight seconds before an earthquake is felt.
“Japan has the possibility of submarine cables, many networks, many cables built and deployed exclusively for that purpose off the coast of Japan, the most seismically active part,” said the director of National Seismological Center, Sergio Barrientos.
Chile is testing an experimental system to detect earthquakes
Chile does not have these underwater sensors, at least not yet, although the National Seismological Center in alliance with a French research center and GTD is testing an experimental system.
“Now we’re doing an experiment on that ended up with good results to use the optical fiber of the GTD, the Prat cable, which is installed on the seabed,” explained Barrientos.
The idea is to use this cable as a kind of ultrasensitive sensor of seismic waves very close to the subduction zone.
“Most of the seismicity in our country occurs between the coast and the trench, that is, between the coast and about 100, 150 kilometers to the west and that seismicity is the places where major earthquakes occur,” explained the director of seismology. .
Telluric movements like this are possible create alerts seconds before the move even. So far the testing of the DAS system has yielded good results. Since September of this year, they have been installed three submarine cable detectors.
“We won by a few seconds, five or ten seconds of advance information because we are closer to the hypocenter, we receive seismic waves earlier,” explained Barrientos.