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Wednesday, December 07, 2022

Chile, the country after the referendum | Opinion

from Santiago

it’s monday passed Chile Marked by questions and statements. result of Referendum on new constitution This surprised all sectors, no one had anticipated a defeat of this magnitude from approval: more than 20 points from disapproval, 38.14% against 61.86%. nor will I vote for 85% of the population, For a total of about 13 million voters, a record low turnout in a country. It was a result that reconfigured the national political map in one night, with uncertainties as a result.

While the polls predicted disapproval to proceed from approval, they did not anticipate that outcome. One of the major factors, as anticipated, was the outcome of the turnout in the elections. compulsory vote, A large number of new voters strongly supported the rejection of the new constitutional text: about 4.5 million more voters voted in this election than in December 2021, when Gabriel Boric Won in the second round, only 250,000 did so in favor of approval. of the rest, More than 4 million, were up for disapproval.

The data was convincing: approval was won in only eight communes, with low margins, three in the Valparaíso region and five in the Santiago metropolitan area, such as the popular Puente Alto commune with 50.97% with 49.03, or uñoa with the area of ​​50.41 against 49.59%. %. In parts that were estimated to be strong, such as Recoleta, ruled by Daniel Jadu, rejection was pegged with 51.93%. The number of disapproval votes was very high in various parts, such as 66.82% in the region of Arica and Parinacota in the extreme north of the country, rising even more in the south, such as in Araucania with 73.69%.

The result was assimilated in a political blow to those who had placed their hopes in a victory for approval. Not only because of the defeat, but because of the magnitude and hypotheses to answer one question after another: What happened? How to explain such blatant disapproval in a country rallied for three years And moving the ballot boxes in a progressive direction? Questions traveled to both sides, social movements, favoring approval to the universe, as well as the corridors of the Palacio de la Moneda, where it was known that a defeat in the elections would have direct consequences for the government.

One of the consequences was speculation within the cabinet about a possible change. Ral Soto, president of the Chamber of Deputies, part of the Party for Democracy (PPD), which is part of the government coalition, said: “There is going to be a change of direction under the leadership of the government, because the coup must be in relation to what happened yesterday. should be done.” A possible change within the cabinet could modify the internal balance between the parties, within the government’s framework. two combine: The one who won the presidency is, Broad Front (FA) and Communist Party next to (pc) independent such as the current Interior Minister, Izkiah Siches, and those who exconcertationLike PPD and Socialist Party (PS).

Soto made his statements in the framework of Monday’s meetings with the president, who met early with him, and with Senate Chamber President lvaro Elijald from PS. Boric “has asked us to develop a dialogue in the National Congress that allows for an institutionalized path forward in the constituent process,” explained Elisalde, who thus confirmed that a new process would indeed take place. , which should probably be accompanied by The same three phases: the election of the traditional for a new constitutional convention, the drafting of a new text, and the second exit referendum.

The agreement regarding a new constitutional process was approved in columns on the same Sunday night after rejection by all forces. On Monday, three main political positions carrying out that campaign met: the centre-left for the future, Una que nos Una, and Amarillos por Chile, who raised the need for the new constitutional to move forward in the “Great Unity Agreement.” process. “We want a new and good constitution, but one based on dialogue, not on intolerance, on compromise and not on maximism and vengeance,” declared a spokesman, Kristian Warneken.

The answer to the question of why the result yielded many explanations and interpretations according to political positions. “The great loser yesterday was CP and octobrism”, for example, said Warneken, thus paying tribute to an analysis stating that the problem with the constitutional text was an excess of fundamentalism, which would be primarily explained by “octobrism”. . ie from the rebellion of the politico-social actors say October 2019 who played a key role in the convention along with a list of independent candidates.

Warneken’s view of “Octoberism” was already echoed within the parties that are part of the cabinet. The PS’s president, Paulina Vodanovi, assured in mid-August that “the main problem of the convention was keeping the list of independents.” How many share that thesis within the government? On the other side of the analysis, namely “Octoberism”, one of the main reasons for the defeat was the poor performance of the government, broken promisesWell, with the demands arising out of mass protests, and less acceptance of the president that was moved to the rejected text.

The results will be analyzed for weeks. The rawness of the approval defeat leads to many questions: What was not seen? So many disagreed and the thermometer of insurgency didn’t even notice it? It also leads to questions about the majority: Sunday’s rejection had 2 million more votes than the 2020 approval when the decision to write a new constitution was made. The presence of compulsory voting undoubtedly led to the expression of the fringes that had previously been distant, while others actually voted in favor of a referendum going in and out of 2020. Something changed on Sunday in Chile, perhaps in October 2019 the open cycle has closed.

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