In a recent analysis, CSIS also says that it is feared that violence may arise between groups advocating fundamental solutions opposed to the fight against climate change or between people who want to preserve the current way of life.
This note was written in April 2021. The Canadian Press recently obtained a copy through the Access to Information Act.
Food and water supply could be affected by global warming. (story photo)
Photo: iStock / 1933bkk
CSIS lists several concerns related to global warming: threats to the Arctic coast, border security, and pressures on water and food supplies.
According to this regulation, a preliminary examination determines that climate change poses multiple long-term threats to the security, safety and prosperity of Canada.
“This threat will not reach a certain time. […]. The process is ongoing and will gradually gain momentum over the coming decades. »
– Adapted from Excerpts from a report by the Canadian Security Intelligence Service
Better to understand and intervene
In November 2021, a senior CSIS official said in an intelligence conference that global warming is affecting some aspects of national security in Canada.
Tricia Geddes, Policy Deputy in CSIS, recalled that this organization has a mandate to anticipate threats and to understand them in order to support other actors in the Canaanite government.
It is not surprising that intelligence agencies are paying more attention to this phenomenon because climate change is becoming more important, says Simon Dalby, a professor at Wilfrid Laurier University in Waterloo, Ontario.
According to political scientist Will Greaves of the University of Victoria, the CSIS memorandum is a more sophisticated description of the threats posed by climate change than that found in most other federal government documents.
“It’s refreshing to see this kind of analysis from a Canadian national security agency. »
— Courtesy of Will Greaves, University of Victoria
New roads, removal of infrastructure, submerged areas…
Brief predicts that retreating sea ice in the Arctic will pave the way for routine shipping through the Northern Passage and make the extraction of minerals and oil in the area more economically viable.
“Great power rivalry for access to, control, and power in the Arctic is likely to increase. Russia’s military activity and growing Chinese presence in this vital region also pose increasing threats.”
– Adapted from Excerpts from a report by the Canadian Security Intelligence Service
Rising water levels could cause damage to infrastructure. Some communities established in coastal areas could even disappear, warns CSIS. For example, some models report significant losses in British Columbia and the Atlantic provinces due to sea level rise and flooding.
Episodes of extreme weather, such as Storm Fiona in the fall of 2022, could increase in the future. The value of the insurable damages was $660 million. (story photo)
Photo: The Canadian Press / Frank Gunn
For management, trying to mitigate the consequences of flooding and extreme weather can be impossible. And the cost of insurance could become too high.
Health and social risk
Even SCRS anticipates that humans are close to wildlife due to reduced biodiversity and habitat loss. This could increase the risk of transmission of animal-loving diseases and the number of pandemics.
The loss of biodiversity could increase the risk of transmission of diseases of animal origin. (story photo)
Photo: Radio-Canada
Climate change could also potentially fuel extremist activities from all political backgrounds.
Professor Greaves agrees, though he believes that CSIS is diminishing the scope of social integration in Canada.
However, these divisions could be widened due to the current political context, which is highly polarized. Companies of all political persuasions can achieve potentially violent and seditious policies, he adds.
