Thursday, December 2, 2021

Coalition collapses at Newspall; Australia is not taking enough action to tackle climate change

This week, Newspoll, presumably held Oct. 20-23 from a sample of just over 1,500, gave Labor a 54-46 lead, one more point for Labor than the previous Newspoll held three weeks ago. Major votes: 38% Labor (up one), 35% for the coalition (down two), 11% Green (stable), 3% for one nation (one growth) and 13% for all others (stable).

50% (one more) were dissatisfied with the performance of Prime Minister Scott Morrison, and 46% (two fewer) were satisfied, with a net approval of -4, three points lower. Anthony Albanese’s net approval improved by one point to -9. Morrison topped Albanese as the best prime minister at 48–34 (last time 47–34). Newspoll numbers are taken from The Poll Bludger.

Newspoll is the poll that the media gets hung up on the most, but this is not necessarily true. In an Essential poll conducted two weeks ago (see below), Morrison’s net approval rose eight points to +17, while Morgan Labor’s leadership fell one point to 53-47.

I’m looking forward to new polls this week from Resolve, Essential and Morgan. In August and September, Resolve Coalition outperformed Newspoll.

When Sydney and Melbourne reopened after a long isolation from COVID, the Coalition was expected to win at Newspall. If Newspall is correct, inflation and supply chain delays are a plausible explanation.

The ratings of US President Joe Biden were affected by inflation (see my Poll Bludger article cited below). Real disposable personal income in the United States fell in four of the five months from April to August.

The Australian service ABS publishes inflation data only once a quarter (in the US, once a month). Inflation data for the September quarter will be released on Wednesday.

In the Guardian data log, 60.3% of the population (under 16) are fully vaccinated, up from 45.2% three weeks ago. We are ranked 26th out of 38 OECD countries in terms of the proportion of the population fully vaccinated, seven places up from three weeks ago. Australia overtook the US and Poland, but New Zealand overtook us.

Official government figures show that 73.1% of people over the age of 16 are fully vaccinated and 86.6% have received at least one dose. Vaccinations have been slower in states that currently have no COVID cases.

Key questions and Newspoll questions about climate change

In an Essential survey over the past two weeks, 42% (three fewer from June) said Australia is not doing enough to tackle climate change, 31% (one more) said we are doing enough, and 15% ( three more) said we were doing. too much.

Between 2016 and 2020, “not doing enough” had more than 50% support, but in January this year and again now, “doing enough” and “doing too much” combined, enjoyed more support. Voters are much more concerned about COVID, and it’s been a long time since the 2019-20 summer wildfires.

59% (three more since June) said climate change was occurring and was caused by human activity, while 30% (also three more) said we were just seeing normal fluctuations in the Earth’s climate.

In Newspool, 35% said Albanese and Labor would be better off “leading Australia’s response to the global climate change crisis,” 28% chose Morrison and the Coalition, and 21% said they would be equal.

When asked what the government should do in the first place from reducing carbon emissions, lowering energy prices and preventing power outages, 47% of individual carbon emissions (up four from February 2020 and 23 from July 2018), 40% of energy prices (two lower and 23 lower) and 10% power outage prevention (one less).

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Other important questions and Morgan’s poll

54% (four more since September) approved of Morrison’s work and 37% (four fewer) disapproved, giving a net approval of +17, up eight points. Albanese climbed six points to +7. Morrison became the best prime minister at 45-29 (47-26 in September).

By 45-30, voters felt the federal government’s response to COVID was good (unchanged from late September and 39-36 at the end of August). 55% rated the NSW government’s response as positive (two from the end of September and 15 from the end of August). 46% rated the Victorian government’s response as positive (two higher).

By age 78-11, voters supported the federal ICAC (81-6 in November 2020). Institutional trust has fallen since March, with state and territory governments falling 11–55% and the federal government 6–48%.

Morgan’s poll in early October from a sample of nearly 2,800 showed Labor leadership of 53–47, up one point for the Coalition since late September. Major votes were 37.5% coalition (up 1.5%), 36% Labor (stable), 11.5% Green (down 1%), 3% per nation (down 0.5%) and 12% for all others (stable). This survey was conducted prior to the discovery of New South Wales.

Seat Selection Swan (Washington): Labor 57-43

A Redbridge poll of Swan’s federal office in Western Australia gave Labor a 57-43 lead (52.7-47.3 in the 2019 Liberal’s favor). The survey was conducted on October 9-12 on a sample of 814 people.

Seating polls in Australia were inaccurate, but this 10% swing in favor of Labor is consistent with the Washington state breakdown by national polls. In the September quarter, Newspoll took Labor 54-46 ahead in Western Australia (55.6-44.4 to Coalition in 2019). The approval of permanent measures by the Washington State Labor government to prevent the spread of COVID is likely to help Federal Labor.

Labor force participation dropped again in September

On October 14, the ABS reported that the unemployment rate in September increased by 0.1% to 4.6%. The participation rate fell 0.7% to 64.5% after falling 0.8% in August. The employment rate – the percentage of eligible Australians working – fell 0.7% to 61.5% after falling 0.8% in August.

The good news for the government is that with Sydney and Melbourne reopening, the economy is likely to rebound quickly and the employment situation could recover to pre-quarantine levels in June. In June, the employment rate of the population was 63.0%, which is the highest figure in the last ten years.



More: During Sydney’s isolation, Labor is clearly ahead of Newspoll, but will the coalition save the economy?


Biden’s ratings not recovering from Afghanistan

On October 14, I wrote to The Poll Bludger that Biden’s ratings have not recovered from the plunge that occurred after the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan two months ago. Collectively, FiveThirtyEight’s ratings are currently 50.7% “disapprove” and 43.4% “approve” (-7.3 net).

Also covered: elections in the US states and two additional elections to the federal chamber, which will be held on November 2 (results in Australia the next day). And the attempts of the Democrats to implement their agenda.

This article is republished from – The Conversation – Read the – original article.

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