SAO PAULO (Reuters) – Brazil’s 2023 coffee crop is expected to reach 54.74 million 60-kilogram bags, government food and statistics agency Conab said on Thursday, downgrading its January forecast of 54.94 million bags due to a further decline in robusta coffee production. Reduced it a bit.
Total production, however, will represent a 7.5% increase from last season, driven by higher Arabica coffee production despite 2023 being a “low year” in its biennial cycle, which alternates years of high and low production.
Arabica production will rise this year by 15.9% to 37.93 million bags, Konab said, after recovering from 2021 drought and frost to negatively impact last year’s production in the world’s biggest producer and exporter of coffee.
“While weather conditions were better in 2022, we can now see an improvement in production,” Edager Pretto, head of Konab, said in a statement.
Robusta coffee production in the South American country, on the other hand, will fall 7.6% from its 2022 record to 16.81 million bags, as the state of Espirito Santo, the top producer, faced unfavorable growing conditions this season, the agency said.
The drop in Robusta harvests was the main reason for the drop in Konab’s overall projection since January, when it forecast Arabica and Robusta production would reach 37.43 million and 17.51 million bags, respectively, this year.
Conab also said it expects coffee prices to decline with crop recovery in Brazil, but “not significantly” as low stock levels will continue to provide some support.
