This weekend will not be particularly ideal for outdoor activities for many parts of the prairie, with extreme heat, humidity and an ongoing risk of thunderstorms, which can be severe in some areas on both days. A very conditional tornado threat is included in parts of Alberta and Saskatchewan on Saturday. The latter bears the brunt of the heat on Saturday, with the day’s high temperatures in the low-30s, then pushed into the 40s in southern Manitoba for Sunday with similar temperatures and Humdex values. More about the threat of the weekend’s storms, below, on how hot it will be.
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This weekend: the threat of thunderstorms for several days in the midst of extreme heat
Saturday and Sunday will be hot and possibly stormy due to heat and humidity as well as other material in the Prairies.
Strong thunderstorms are expected in southern Alberta and Saskatchewan on Saturday as a low pressure system moves north from Montana into southern Saskatchewan. Strong thunderstorms are in place in southern Alberta.
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isolated thunderstorms will continue to develop into isolated thunderstorms Saturday morning in Alberta.
There is a high risk of severe thunderstorms for southeastern Alberta and southwestern Saskatchewan by afternoon and evening as the region has fewer tracks and moves to the northeast.
With very high CAPE values and shear present within the atmosphere, dynamics are favorable for supercells on Saturday in extreme southern Alberta that may track northeast into Saskatchewan, increasing the risk of tornadoes in the late evening hours to large hail. can take with you. The threat of a tornado is very conditional.
As of Sunday, severe thunderstorms remain likely over southeastern Alberta, while the low pressure system continues to track in that direction as it moves east into southern Saskatchewan, southern Manitoba and northwestern Ontario. The potential dangers of severe storms include strong gusts of wind, large hail and heavy rain.
However, such extreme heat means that there is likely to be a cap in place, but storms that are capable of breaking it will very quickly become severe.
Comprehensive heat warning in effect
In addition to the threat of multi-day thunderstorms, days of high heat and tropical humidity will extend from west to east across the southern prairie this weekend. There are likely to be daily temperature records and alarming Humdex values.
Heat warnings are in effect with special weather statements in Saskatchewan and southern Manitoba, as the heat dome over the South America will move the northern part of the ridge into the prairie.
Widespread low and mid-30°C temperatures are forecast for southern Saskatchewan on Saturday, while southern Manitoba will be the focus for mid-30°C heat on Sunday.
Humidex values will be in the 40s on Saturday and Sunday, respectively, for parts of the regions above.
“Extreme heat affects everyone,” Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) said in a heat warning.
“The risks are greater for young children, pregnant women, older adults, people with chronic illnesses, and people who work or exercise outside. Watch for the effects of heat illness: swelling, rash, cramps, fainting, heat exhaustion, Heat stroke and worsening conditions for certain health conditions. Drink plenty of water and stay in a cool place before you become thirsty. Check with older family, friends and neighbors. Make sure they are cool and drinking water.”
Very cold conditions are expected next week, although parts of Manitoba remain warm at times.
Thumbnail courtesy of Marjorie, retrieved in Kleifeld, Man.
Be sure to check back for updates later this week as we continue to fine-tune forecast details on the timing and severity of the storm.