We are experiencing one of the many misfortunes of Stalin’s decisions, one that, as in the past, caused suffering and death many years after his disappearance on March 5, 1953. The Soviet leader defied history when he left the Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh) to Azerbaijan, because it ignores a lot of documentation that supports the millennial settlement of Armenians in the Caucasus, that 90% of the population of Artsakh is Armenian and that it is always considered part of this culture. The Soviets should cooperate with the Turks to maintain control of the Caucasian region which prevailed in these arguments.
In any case, it is easy to remember, before analyzing the Armenian question, that in October 1992 blood was shed for the first time on the territory of the Confederation of Independent States led by Russia when the Ossetian and Ingush clashed in north Ossetia. In the northern Transcaucasus, which was destroyed by wars (Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia), the Caucasian mosaic seems to show the validity of the old domino theory, that is, of the chain reaction. After the failed coup in August 1991, people, countries and ethnic groups began to act, to worry and to confront each other.
In the Caucasus, a mountainous region inhabited by many groups of different languages and origins, some with a presence for thousands of years and others arriving in the 17th century, population movements followed until the end of the great Caucasus War. (1865) and They continued the deportations ordered by Stalin in 1944. 70 years of Soviet rule meant new suffering and new complications. What is happening now and what will continue to happen, unfortunately for many years, is due to the Soviet legacy in the form of a time bomb.
And this bomb that exploded on several occasions led to the total defeat of the Armenians in Artsakh and their unconditional surrender to the Azeri. The change in alliances between superpowers and lesser actors was accelerated by the war in Ukraine and the new wind condemned the Armenians in this region and, for a short time, in Armenia itself. The military superiority of the Azerbaijanis prevented the prolongation of a bloody conflict in which they would prevail unquestionably. But the question now is what the more than 100,000 Armenians in the enclave will do in the face of the threat of ethnic genocide. Many decided to flee their territory to Armenia. It seems that the turn taken by Nikol Pashinián, in power since 2018, which is closer to the United States, caused the passivity of Russia in the recent conflict, although the weakness of Moscow at this time is a reality that, with in its own interest, is clearly harmful. of the Armenians.
The Azerbaijani president, Ilham Aliyev, knows his obvious superiority, demographic and military, which has tripled the capabilities of Armenia, and the unconditional support of Turkey in any conflict with Armenia and that is why in some hours he regained four of the seven districts lost in 1994 and the total surrender of the enclave after a brutal and inhumane blockade for months by closing the Lachín corridor. The shadow of the war in Ukraine gives it enough room for maneuver to deal the final blow to an Armenia that does not have its own means of countering the attack or effective support from Russia, as has been proven. The peaceful resolution of the conflict, supported by the mediation attempts of the Minsk Group (USA, France and Russia) within the OSCE Framework (1994) or the Madrid Principles (2007), is impossible. Too many interests and too few preferences.
The immediate reading of what happened seems pretty clear. Armenia does not have its own way to resist the Azeri pressure and Iran, also an interested partner of the Armenians, will not increase its support because it has enough control over the internal challenge of its citizens. In the meantime, Turkish and Israeli support for Aliyev will not decrease and so in the not too distant future they will try to eliminate Armenia itself from the geopolitical map. The meeting in Granada on October 5 between the two countries, which will be attended by the representatives of Germany, France and the EU, may serve to sign a peace agreement, but in the meantime the exodus of the inhabitants of the territory of Armenia will continue . former Republic of Artsakh.
The Armenian question is part of a global geopolitical restructuring, in which the especially worn democracy is nothing more than an old hypocritical model defended by those who use it for their own benefit and that if the time will come they will not hesitate to destroy. . If this happens, we will swallow it like Ukraine for the praise and benefit of the world’s elite with the majority of citizens to spare. Defective material that no longer offers them any return and therefore costs.