Publication of the final report of the House of Representatives commission that has examined the events of the past year and a half that led to the attack on the Capitol on January 6, 2021, and in particular, the recommendation made by its nine members (seven Democrats and two Republicans) that the Justice Department has charged former President Donald Trump with four counts (inciting to riot, conspiracy to commit perjury and defraud the United States, and obstructing official congressional proceedings) as well as a review on its legal Shadow cast landscape.
The second half of 2022 has been disastrous for the former Republican president on that front: It began in August with the FBI entering and searching his official residence in Mar-a-Lago, Florida, where he was being sought (and were found) hundreds of classified and secret documents that Trump was not authorized to remove from the White House after the end of his presidency.
Trump’s efforts to obstruct the Justice Department investigation by appointing special educator which blocked it by examining each seized document one by one, initially defended by a district judge in a decision with embarrassingly wrong grounds, liquidated outright by the Eleventh Federal Circuit of Appeals (in derision The order, to add, was issued by two one) magistrates appointed by Trump himself – and another by George Bush Jr).
In anticipation of the Eleventh Circuit’s ruling and the House decision, Attorney General Merrick Garland appointed Jack Smith, a war crimes prosecutor based in The Hague, in November to focus on the investigation of the war crimes papers. Mar-a-Lago and the January 6 Rebellion.
Therefore, any time after Christmas we can expect a decision from Special Counsel Smith to initiate criminal proceedings in one or both of the investigations (in theory, an investigation related to the Mar-a-Lago papers should have prior It’s probably less complex and more advanced).
Most notably, however, these are only the two most significant investigations, but by no means the only ones, that could lead to a formal charge against former President Trump. In the same month of December, two of his corporate group companies have been sentenced for tax fraud (a case in which Trump was not charged, but which could be held against him, especially once, for years) Following the fight, the House of Representatives this month obtained and decided to release his tax returns, which Trump, unlike all former presidents before him, had refused to release. Can open new judicial fronts against. On the other hand, several lawsuits by women accusing Trump of assault and/or sexual harassment are still pending.
As I say, all of this creates a very bleak judicial panorama, with the prospect that Trump will eventually have to go to trial. In the case of the Mar-a-Lago papers and the January 6 insurrection, the evidence against Trump is fairly clear, at least from the data made public so far.
To this should be added the fact that Trump will by no means be the sole defendant in both proceedings (indeed, a House of Representatives committee has recommended prosecution of several of his aides). And the incentive for them to get a lesser sentence in exchange for reprimanding their superiors is clear and will undoubtedly be taken advantage of by Smith and his team.
And in the midst of this jungle of potential lawsuits, appeals, motions and oral hearings, the former president last month announced his intention to run again in the 2024 election with two slightly conflicting intentions.
In the first place, everything indicates that one of the main factors in Trump’s decision to run again is the belief that the decision makes it more difficult to prosecute — although Smith’s track record indicates that, If he believes he is material enough to prosecute the former president, the fact that he is going to re-offer himself to the polls should not deter him in any way.
At the same time, if Smith ends up suing Trump in one or both of the cases we’re discussing, Trump is at least confident that an eventual lawsuit will cause Republican voters, like the Caravans of the West, “to turn around.” Make common cause with “him with his wagons” and with him, make up a story of “political oppression” with which he seeks to impress the courts.
Could any of the current cases keep Trump from running forever? Yes – because, in at least the two cases Jack Smith is investigating, a criminal conviction would also disqualify him from holding any public office – but one Warning Important: It is practically impossible that, no matter how fast Smith’s team acts, two such complex processes can be processed – especially those relating to the 6 January uprising – in such a way that before November 2024 be the final punishment.
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