The fear of political violence on election day, a hypothesis considered highly probable by 40% of voters, could turn 9% of people away from the elections due on October 2.
That’s what Datafolha found in its new national survey, in which it listened to 5,926 people in 300 cities from September 13 to 15. The margin of error is two percentage points.
The issue, which is not as unprecedented as the 2018 stabbing and other episodic shows against Jair Bolsonaro (PL), has been on the radar of candidates and parties for months as political polarization intensifies. Especially because of the more aggressive speech of figures associated with Bolsonarism.
Discussions with the president’s supporters have brought to light at least two recent cases of the deaths of PT militants and several cases of hostility and violence on both sides.
In addition to episodes such as the verbal aggression of a Bolsonist state deputy against a journalist this week, there are also records of threats made to researchers at electoral polling institutions in the exercise of their work.
Indeed, among voters of the race leader Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), with 45% voting intentions in the first round, the rate of those considering not going to the polling station is very high: 10%, against 5% who say no. That they vote for Bolsonaro. The President had 33% preferences in this poll.
The fear of violence has also been used by supporters of the former president to ask voters for useful votes for Ciro Gomes (PDT) and Simone Tebate (MDB), who are third in the race. Shortening the dispute by this logic will reduce the risk of the situation getting out of hand.
Among those who think violence is more likely, the rate is higher among women (45%) than men (35%). Lula voters also consider it more (50%, compared to 14% who do not believe in the hypothesis) than Bolsonaro (26%, while 29% do not think so). In the regional segment, only residents of the south disagree: there, where 14% of the people heard by Datafolha are, 33% believe the chance is too good.
27% of the ears assess that the risk is moderate, while 11% say it is small and 19%, non-existent. Another 3% couldn’t say.
The survey was commissioned by sheet and is registered by TV Globo and in the Superior Electoral Court under the number BR-04099/2022.
