Wednesday, December 07, 2022

Deposits in the peso fell nearly 3% in August and cut a streak of 3 consecutive increases

And he said in annual terms he contracted a real rate of 4.2%, led by current accounts (-7.6% real year-over-year). Meanwhile, on the contrary, Fixed deposits grew by 1.7% actual month-on-month (+4.1% actual year-on-year).

,Given the expectation of greater devaluation with an additional increase in the interest rate, it can be assumed that part of the elimination of vision accounts was destined for the creation of fixed terms or the purchase of savings dollars.”, analyzed the consultant.

Similarly, they highlighted that, within certain conditions, “a change in dynamics was observed that was stated in the previous point, as an actual contraction of 5.1% month-on-month was observed in adjustable UVA, The first was down so far this year.”

Whereas, adjustable UVA contributed less than 0.5% of the total fixed terms average increase during August.

At this point, the LCG highlighted that Modest recovery during the month of June (+1.2 actual month-on-month) a trend in pesos contracted again in August and debt failed to consolidate: 1% real month-on-month.

They continue to position themselves in positive territory in annual terms due to a low comparison base (+1.2% actual), he added.

In another order he stated that Credit to companies fell for the second month in a row (-0.3% real month-on-month; +10.4% actual year-on-year), mainly due to a decline in overdrafts (-1.2% real m/m).

The advisory pointed out that consumer credit fell again, although their contraction was moderate (-1.6% actual month-on-month in July, -3% actual month-on-month in July) compared to July.

,Inside, both personal loan and credit card financing saw negative dynamics (-1.7% actual month-on-month and -1.6% actual month-on-month, respectively).”, he elaborated.

Similarly, it stated that real guaranteed loans contracted 1.2% month-to-month in actual. “In this case, the dynamic was once again driven by mortgage loans, which fell 3.4% in real terms, while pledges saw a marginal increase of 0.9% in real terms,” he said.

“After a sharp contraction of dollar deposits during the month of July (US$901 million), August again saw a decline, although to a lesser extent (US$-114 million), a variation of -0.8% compared to Represents. End of July”, considered consultant.

Regarding the future, the LCG report highlights: “Verification of new interest rate hike expectations will continue to drive higher demand for traditional fixed deposits, which means more contraction of vision accounts, However, if the private sector’s demand for public securities improves as a result of a better fiscal outlook, there could be a contraction in the demand for fixed deposits. for its part, Dollar outflow will depend on political stability that can be achieved with the policies of the new cabinet,

With regard to loans, they affirmed that a scenario of falling activity, such as that expected for the second half of the year, would have a direct correlation to credit dynamics, adding to the new scenario of rising interest rates. Will eventually suppress the demand side.

,We expect return of stock and increase in non-performing loans”, concluded the consultant.

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