Today is D-Day in Morena. How national President Mario Delgado processes and communicates the electoral vote count depends largely on the success or risks of the ruling party’s unity. There are four days left between today and Sunday afternoon, the date when the official meeting of the Morena party will take place, to nominate the coordinator of the 4T who will carry out the scar operation, so pass the baton in front of President López Obrador (uh- huh) appease the vanquished. All eyes are on Marcelo and there are reasons for that, but we can’t take our eyes off Monreal’s potential tantrums, Adán Augusto’s kicks and Manuel Velasco’s proven blackmail ability.
Six years ago, Mario Delgado sat across the table with Ricardo Monreal and Martí Batres when they were told: “This is Claudia.” Everyone, including him, protested the lack of transparency in the process. Today he is healed by demanding a recount of every vote, every vote. Six years ago, Delgado sat at the table and was the first to recognize Sheinbaum’s triumph, real or forced. This role now seems to be played by Fernández Noroña, with the difference that today it is no longer enough.
The only certainty is that there will be kickers. However, it is not the same for the disqualification of, say, minor issues – a poorly completed questionnaire, the absence of a signature from one of the MPs, a difference of two votes in a constituency – than for substantive issues such as the black hand the selection of the points at which to carry out the investigation or the theft of packages, which Marcelo’s team denounces.
How much will Ebrard sell the defeat? Now it really depends on the result. If the difference is about ten points, as shown by the published polls, which we consider serious, then all that remains is to negotiate without losing too much dignity. With fewer than five points, it gets funny, even more so when not all polling stations agree completely. This scenario would set the stage for Marcelo to be dissatisfied.
More important than the difference in votes will be the stance Sheinbaum takes. Resentment runs high between teams and bringing the temperature down largely hinges on Claudia being generous in victory. If she really wants to be president, she should be in charge of scar surgery, not Mario Delgado or López Obrador.
Tomorrow we will know if Claudia is a candidate; We’ll see if she has presidential material in the next few days.