In this sense, the analyst recommended what to do with savings: “Personally I don’t recommend selling dollars, that’s the last thing I would do, in this instance I prefer to take bank financing. Market rate approx. 60% per annum, this is a lower rate than inflation in the future which may be around 90% per year. I will eliminate all instances of not selling any kind of goods including dollars, first I will take financing because Rates are negative against inflation”.
“At current prices I sell dollars and I keep goods. I believe that goods are a rarity, and therefore I prefer to hold stocks and not dollar bills. Buying goods in the medium term is the best business is,” he said.
“We have a serious monetary policy problem, the state intervened in the peso market and greatly reduced interest rates, this does not make these instruments attractive, therefore, economic agents are stationed in dollars. Ghost trains citizens to foreign countries. currency.
The economist assured that to reverse this scenario “The rate of growth of the wholesale exchange rate and interest rate should be higher than the rate of inflation. But this recipe is not in the DNA of this government. There is no way to discipline the market at the moment. The bank is not the central dollar, therefore, it The dollar cannot offer to bridge the exchange rate differential which is 160% when measured with blue dollars”,
“At this juncture the Central Bank has two instruments, the interest rate on the one hand and the possibility of an increase in the wholesale exchange rate on the other. We believe that the Central Bank will have to leave the ghost train sooner or later and generate more. Incentives so that investors want to establish themselves in the peso market. To signal confidence, the government must show that it can reduce the fiscal deficit and manage to increase central bank reserves. If that happens, the markets will continue to bet on the dollar and the forecast of one dollar to $400 at the end of the year will come true, as will inflation of over 90% per year,” he concluded.
short term outlook
“Blue I don’t worry, because in the medium term it is arbitrage with respect to MEPs and CCLs. In the short term, it is tempered by the panic of retailers validating any price, but what you have to watch out for are the financials marking the dollar’s impulse of the market.”, expressed economist Sergio Chouza.
A recent EcoLatina report focused on the coming weeks for the Ministry of Economy: “We are in the presence of a scenario of greater fiscal austerity going forward: without the relevant margin to finance ourselves with temporary advances (here Even failing to meet the target with the IMF), the financial program will continue to rely heavily on debt auctions. For this reason, it becomes even more important to normalize the financial front at the earliest, and we Will definitely see an increase in interest rates, which have been postponed”.
“Finally, even if the economic program is redirected (BCRA re-accumulates reserves and devaluation expectations are dormant) The second semester will be with higher inflation, less activity and more stringent financial limits than the firstThis indicates that the financial/political/social balance will remain unstable. With less time to make real reforms that yield positive results, but still plenty of time to control costs, the current financial crisis is forcing the government to Stop prioritizing profit maximization to focus on minimizing costs, And avoiding devaluation of the official dollar will be at the top of the list of priorities in the coming days.”
