After another busy week for the economy, finance and forex markets, these are the 5 variables to monitor
Starting with the “Key of the week” we will try to take into account the data in the week, in a few rows and in a concrete way the main Variables that affect the investor. What does the market see and expect for the next 5 days?
- Blue $338 +15.36% weekly
- MEP $312.92 +7.42% weekly
- CCL $305.40 +9.70% weekly
As the exchange run continues, on Thursday the BCRA extended restrictions to work in MEPs and CCLs in hopes of controlling the situation. The first day had the worst result and more measures may be implemented in the coming days. since the beginning of run dollars Increase between 50/60%. The only effective way is to control the amount of peso.
CCL is priced at $294 per stock versus its average value of the peso.
2 – fee
Inflation picks up in July While the BCRA is reluctant to raise rates, preliminary data indicate this situation will be difficult to sustain 7% inflation for this month. It is not ruled out that it accepts an increase in it, meanwhile, without a doubt, if it is kept in pesos at the rate, the option should be adjustable for inflation with grapple or sear instruments.
3 – Actions
- Merval 113,851.42 +9.24% Weekly
- 345.69 348.73 +0.88% Weekly
las share in peso They continue to act as currency hedging, with a slight rise in the dollar also achieved last week.
The impact of n remains to be seen for next weekNew ban imposed by BCRA With regard to the operation of cedars, it is speculated that low demand may affect their price and thus incur losses.
4 – bond
- country risk off 2,942 basis points +189bp weekly
Without a floor for sovereign bonds in dollars, it is mentioned that two foreign investment banks Even at these low prices they are in a reluctant position. All macro imbalances are reflected in the price of the bond. They show no signs of a reaction despite their gloomy prices, making it difficult for the trend to continue even without a temporary rebound.
bonds in pesos continue with their recovery, acceleration of inflation Will make bonds and letters more attractive. There is a tender on Wednesday and the Treasury needs to have received at least $300,000 million to cover maturity. The market seeks dollar-denominated instruments as a hedge in this context.
5 – coins
Dollar: The US currency continues to strengthen against the world’s major currencies, with its index up 4% in the month and almost 13% so far this year.
rate increase The dollar will strengthen and this trend will continue over time.
This worldwide movement will affect the currencies of the region and cause the euro to lose its parity in a short time.