The countryside of Castilla y León is dying of thirst. The board already confirms the “catastrophe” in yield predictions prepared by the Agrarian Technological Institute of Castilla y León (Itasil) along with AEMET, which predicts the second worst wheat and barley harvests in the last decade.
Itasil calculates that wheat yields will be 80 percent of the average for a standard crop, a figure only worse than in the last decade in 2017, when it reached 72 percent. Similarly, in barley, the forecast is even less bright, with a forecast of 78 percent for this year, only worse than six seasons ago, when it stood at 62 percent.
These estimates, consulted by Ical, are based on representations from the community over the past 30 years, are provisional and worsen every day due to lack of rain. As an example of the times to come, it should be remembered that the worst year of the decade, 2017, with current permits, collected a little over 2.5 million tons of grain, when the average harvest was more than six million. community.
The rainfall map provided by Itasil makes clear the problem for the community and a good part of Spain. In this regard, it indicates that in most areas of Castilla y León the precipitation falls at a value of 75 percent of the average. in the last 30 years, but in a large strip running from north to south through the center-east of Soria, it stands at 50 percent, north of Burgos on the border with Palencia; and a part northeast of Leon. There is a small area in the south center of Segovia where it does not even reach 25 percent.
MAPS
Despite the fact that this global outcome is already worrying, maps managed by Itasil show some areas where the situation acquires catastrophic overtones, such as the entire centre-east of Soria, in a strip from north to south of the province , where the alternative yield ranges between 50 and 25 percent of the average, even in the southernmost region Tierra de Medinaceli, where it drops to 15 percent, i.e. areas where the entire crop has already been lost. It is considered
The Itasil maps place most of the area in the range of 75 percent compared to the average of the last 30 years, but this drops to 50 percent in Burgos from north to south in La Bureba and the area between Sedano and Las Loras; Most of Avila and Segovia south of Valladolid and west to center and east of Salamanca.
On the other hand, forecast maps for the start of harvest, where it occurs, indicate that, for wheat, in the Tierra de Campos region, a large part of Avila and Salamanca, it mainly falls between five and eight days. ; Whereas in the west of Segovia and Soria, it reaches 12 days, as in most of Zamora and north of Salamanca, Burgos, Palencia and León. In the west, in the province of León and Zamora, the advance is between 18 and 22 days.
As far as barley is concerned, an advance of eight days is estimated for most of the community, reaching up to 12 in a good part of León and north of Zamora, and the border between the two provinces at La Cabrera. But, progress is between 18 and 22 days. ,
Regional analysis
A provincial analysis of the crop shows that in wheat, Soria is the province most affected by drought conditions, with yields estimated at 68 percent of average, the lowest figure for the decade, and only worse than in 2005 in 30 years. Done (57) and 2012 (58). In barley, the situation is worse with 67 per cent, which was lower in three decades only in 2005 (50) and 2012 (54).
The situation in Segovia is also disastrous, with 77 percent of the average wheat yield, the worst data of the decade. Furthermore, in barley, the data stand at 75 percent, which was only at 56 percent in 2005, within the 30-year series provided by Itasil.
In Avila, the yield of wheat is 72 per cent and it was worse in 2019 with 69 per cent. Meanwhile, barley is expected at 69 percent, also only above the 2019 figure of 68 percent and the fourth worst in 30 years.
Burgos will also be one of the provinces most affected by drought conditions. In wheat, as always according to Itasil, this will be the worst crop of the decade with a yield of 80 percent of the average of the past 30 years, worse than 2017, with 85. In barley, the percentage is also estimated to be currently at 80 percent, the worst percentage ahead of similar data for 2017, and only down from 2005’s 68 percent in the past three decades.
In Lyon, Itasil forecasts an average yield of 91 percent, the third-worst record of the decade, compared with 61 percent in 2017 and 90 percent in 2022. In barley, 87 per cent is expected, the fourth worst record in the last ten years, up from 2015 (85), 2017 (57) and 2022 (84).
In Palencia, it is estimated to be 84 percent of the average wheat crop, the second but lowest figure after 2017’s 64 percent. In barley, the percentage is set at 82 per cent, the fourth lowest in the decade compared to 2015 (78). 2017 (50) and 2022 881).
In Salamanca, the second worst wheat harvest in the last ten years is also expected, with a yield of 81 percent of the average (100), similar to 2015, and only 66 percent worse in 2019. For barley, the yield is 78 percent of the average, behind only the figures for 2017 (65) and 2019 (61).
In Valladolid province, wheat yields are expected at 83 percent of average, a figure that is the fourth lowest in the decade compared to 2017 (46), 2019 (70) and 2022 (81). Compared to 2015 (73), 2017 (38) and 2019 (78) and 2022 (81), barley is estimated at 82 percent of the average yield, which is but a fifth of the decade.
In Zamora, the percentage is 82 percent of the average, well above 2017 (63), 2019 (72) and 2022 (73), also the fourth worst record in ten years. In barley, 81 per cent is given, the fifth worst data in ten years after 2015 (66), 2017 (39), 2019 (77) and 2022 (75).
Political context
In this context, it should be remembered that in order to address the problem of drought in the rural areas of Castilla y León, the Board called professional agricultural organizations for a meeting of the Agricultural Council next Thursday, May 18, at 12:30 pm.
President of ASJA, regional coordinator of UCCL, Jesus Manuel-González Palacin, and man in charge of La Alizan UPA-COAG Lorenzo Rivera, Donasiano Dujo, told Ical that they will seek a declaration of drought in the affected areas. lack of rainfall, implementation of direct aid; Specific assistance for supply of fodder and water to animals, and administrative flexibility in application of CAP.
The President of the Junta and PP of Castilla y León, Alfonso Fernández Manueco, has already voiced the possibility of improving the financing of the sector, anticipating the payment of CAP to agricultural and livestock professionals and the contracting of insurance to encourage and help . Minimizing damage caused by drought. We will have to see how this is reflected in an agreement with the sector next Thursday.
For its part, the government has taken steps to support the sector already facing a dire situation with the approval of a royal decree-law within the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, approved last Thursday Have raised A global item of 784 million, of which the largest amount will be direct aid to the realm of 636 million.
