In a few days, INDEC will announce inflation for February, which analysts estimate to be close to 6%. Meanwhile, the calculations for the retail exchange rates for March have already been prepared. Since it is a peak month, usually due to the start of classes and other activities, a higher rise than February is expected: between 6% and 6.5%.
According to analysts who participate in the Survey of Market Expectations (REM), the Central Bank, the Consumer Price Index in February reached 6.1% per month, while they expect March to register another acceleration up to 6.3%. The decline will only begin in April, with a monthly rate of 5.9%. However, this certainly means that the target of 60% annual growth by the Government in 2023 is significantly removed.
The historical trend of the brand is that the instant prices of the month, than the average for the rest of the year, has to do -outside the Education item due to the beginning of the classes- with the seasonal growth in Clothing changed at the time.
But also, carefully, in this March, the continued increase in beef, which rose in February and pulls meat, which in turn explains 23% of the CPI. As it happened in February, when they registered an increase of 8 to 10% per month, the fuel left a significant drag in March, economists estimate.
On the other hand, this month, the increase in water and gas, trains and traffic (6%), in private schools (16.4%), food (3.8%) and the cape (7.7%) for those who receive a net income. equal to or greater than $392,562 and 5% for those with a salary of less than the same amount and domestic service (4%).
Regarding the impact of inflation on different socioeconomic sectors, the Ecolatina consultant has developed that the greatest pressures fall on the poorest families who consume in local businesses, where Fair Prices do not reach and consumer spending ends up being higher. This factor, added to “the shortage of foreign currency and the drought, plus the weakness of Fair Prices complicate the search to avoid a major impact of inflation on vulnerable families,” he said in the latest report.
For JPMorgan, meanwhile, the expectations are not optimistic: “in the midst of high (and growing) controlled inflation, we must expect the core to accelerate further as the government advances until the elections in October until the current policy tending within the limits.”.
“Our baseline session assumes monthly headline inflation of 6.0% month-on-month, in the first half of 2023, and accelerates to 7.0% month-on-month in the second. This way is consistent with inflation in December in December. 112%”, calculated jp Morgan.
Eliana Scialabba of the Argentina 21st Economic Studies Center (CEEAXXI) estimated that inflation in February was 6.2% and in March the price would be closer to 6.5%. “In February we already broke the 100% barrier,” he recalled.
“The reality is that the inflationary scale follows the financial dynamics, and the government continues to deny it, the data only confirms the theory. Despite the strong sterility of the BCRA, the managers of these pesos take for granted the future issue, bringing the demand for money to a minimum,” he said.
“This, in turn, is boosted by the drought, which drives up the price of fresh food due to a decrease in supplies. In addition, the increased price of beef with a butcher’s margin is added to increase the price; which reflect a very negative real increase”, explained the director of CEEAXXI.