Tuesday, November 29, 2022

Economy to slow down in 2023: OECD improves its GDP forecast for Spain to 4.4% in 2022, but cuts it to 1.5% next year

Spain’s economy will grow more than expected in 2022, even leaving some decline in the second half. However, the blow will come next year.

According to a forecast update published today by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, GDP will grow by 4.4% this year, 0.3 tenths higher than expected. In June, Spain’s GDP growth was estimated at 4.1% in 2022.

This is one of the highest growth in advanced economies. But it is explained because Spain was also the economy hardest hit by the pandemic, and because it is one of the people taking the most time to recover what was lost due to the crisis.

On the other hand, in 2023, the economy will grow by barely 1.5%, compared to 2.1% previously estimated. His vote Spain will grow 0.7 tenth less than expected,

“The world economy has been impacted by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Global economic growth stalled in the second quarter of 2022, and indicators from many economies now point to a long period of moderate growth,” the agency states.

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In the case of GermanyIn contrast, the OECD predicts that the economy will enter recession in 2023, German GDP will contract 0.7% next year, which is an ax to the forecast of 2.4 points.

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Growth, warns the OECD, “has been impacted by energy and food prices, increasing inflationary pressures at a time when the cost of living was already rising rapidly around the world.”

As a result, the agency expects the world economy to grow by 3% in 2022 and 2.2% in 2023, “far below pre-war rate forecasts.” In 2023, real world income could fall by about $2.8 trillion a year earlier.

This cut in the forecast for 2023 is explained by a sharp contraction of the US economy, which will grow by only half a point next year, and the eurozone, whose growth will stall at 0.3%, “with the risk of a reduction in output in many winter months.” European economies during

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In the case of Spain, inflation will close this year at 9.1%, which is one percentage point higher than expected.

The following year, the OECD noted that tighter monetary policy and lower supply constraints should ease inflationary pressures, “but higher energy prices and rising labor costs are likely to slow”. For example, in Spain it is expected that next year prices will still increase by 5%, two tenths more.

Globally, the agency expects headline inflation to fall from 8.2% in 2022 to 6.5% in G20 economies in 2023, and to fall from 6.2% in advanced G20 economies this year to 4% in 2023.

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