Election in the United States: Trump’s future and 3 other things that are at stake this November 8

without their names on the ballots, Joe Biden and Donald Trump have become the heroes of an intense election campaign It has once again highlighted the division that the United States is experiencing. The country celebrates the midterm elections on November 8, the so-called “midterms,” ​​and the results are expected to have a major impact in the two years that the Biden presidency lasts (and beyond).

in the United States The House of Representatives and a portion of the Senate are renewed every two years.: in some cases coinciding with the presidential election and in others in the middle of the presidential term, hence the name of the election.

That’s why many people are viewing this election as referendum on the current president, And it is very common that, in the process, the party that occupies the White House loses seats.

The Democratic Party won a majority in the House in the 2020 election and a tie in the Senate, which is a de facto majority as the tie-breaking vote falls on Vice President Kamala Harris. This has allowed Biden Approve some plans of his ambitious legislative agenda,

For Republicans, this is an important moment: This will be the first election since Trump left the White House, and it will be the best indicator of the former president Decide Whether to Run as a Presidential Candidate for 2024, Also, if Republicans take control of either house, Could effectively slow down Biden’s agenda,

they can also be Control congressional investigative committeesIt may therefore end the investigation into the attack on the United States Capitol on January 6, 2021, although its work is expected to conclude by the end of the year.

Political Correspondent of BBC In Washington, Anthony Zurcher shared some of what he believes will be the key points of this election.

1. Abortion rights or restrictions

Changes in the composition of Congress can have a direct impact on the daily lives of Americans. A good example is the case of abortion. In June, the The Supreme Court reversed Roe v. lowered Which provided constitutional protection to abortion in the country.

Both parties already have bills they will try to introduce at the federal level if they win control of Congress in November. Democrats pledge to uphold women’s abortion rights, while Republicans propose a federal ban on abortions beyond 15 weeks of pregnancy.

At the state level, the outcome of gubernatorial and local legislative races in key battleground states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan could mean those places impose more restrictions on abortion.

But whichever party wins control of Congress — and power in the states — will have a chance to influence the focus of policies that go beyond abortion.

If the Republicans win, Immigration, religious rights and crime are expected to become a priority, In contrast, key issues for Democrats are the environment, health care, voting rights, and gun control.

2. Trump’s Return

Unlike previous presidents who have lost electoral contests in the United States, Trump did not quietly withdraw from politics, It appears he is still interested in returning to the White House in 2024, and the midterm elections could either solidify his position or dash his hopes.

Although he does not appear on the ballot as a candidate, Trump has political support for dozens of Republican candidates,

Despite objections from some party leaders, the former president managed to promote some candidates to the Senate – former football player Herschel Walker in Georgia, TV doctor Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, and populist author JD Vance in Ohio. Traditional Republicans in the primary.

If these candidates win, it can be argued that Trump’s political instincts are sharp and his brand of conservative politics has national appeal. But if Republicans fall short in Congress, and it’s because of the failure of the unorthodox candidates chosen by Trump, the former president could take the blame.

Such a result would raise hopes of Trump’s presidential rivals within the party. both governors of Florida, Ron DeSantisAs Governor of Texas, Greg Abbottare up for re-election in November and could use the results in those races as a springboard for their own campaigns to win the Republican nomination in 2024.

3. Joe Biden’s future

Midterm elections are generally seen as a referendum on the first two years of a presidential term; And this is why, historically, the party in power has to face defeat. Biden’s approval rating is the lowest it has been in more than a year,

While Democrats have recovered somewhat, concerns about high inflation and the state of the economy represent an uphill battle for the ruling party to retain control of both houses of Congress.

In his first two years as president, Biden pushed new legislation on issues such as climate change, gun control, infrastructure investment and child poverty, despite holding a narrow majority in Congress.

However, if control of either house passed to the Republican Party, it would have the power to block Congress from passing Democratic bills and The result would be a legislative impasse,

a A bad night for Democrats will also be interpreted as a sign of the president’s continued political weakness.And that could revive calls for Biden to clear the way for another Democratic nominee once again when the 2024 presidential campaign begins.

Yet the president and his advisers insist he is running for re-election, and only once in modern politics has a sitting president lost his party’s nomination in a primary.

4. What about those who do not recognize the 2020 election?

The 2022 midterm elections will be the first federal elections since the attack on the United States Capitol on January 6, 2021. Trump supporters try to block congressman from certifying Joe Biden’s election victory,

Far from calming down after the riots, Trump has persisted in his challenges to the election results and has actively supported Republican candidates who he says were denied victory.

Many of these candidates, such as the nominee for Secretary of State Mark Finchem in Arizona and jim merchant More gubernatorial candidates in Nevada Doug Mastriano In Pennsylvania, they are running for offices that will have at least some control over their state’s electoral system in the 2024 presidential race.

These politicians, if elected, may refuse to certify the election results in their states if the country is to see a close election for the presidency. They may also be involved in arguing charges of electoral corruption, or in lawsuits against certain counties. Create new rules and regulations to restrict certain methods of votingsuch as voting by mail.

In the election two years ago, several state Republican officials refused to bow to Trump’s pressure to overturn the results in various places. If the 2020 election is as close as two years from now, this type of challenge could see a very different outcome.

bbc mundo