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Saturday, December 10, 2022

Entry into agricultural dollars and rising interest in inflation-adjusted bonds

The market is starting to see how the “wart plan” works, which involves quickly exiting stress positions and then ordering out various variables. financial. “It’s not a game changer yet, but it is in shape, at least, and so we are more positive about sovereign debt and cash with settlement,” says Adcap. For the advisor, after the loan swap in August, it was possible to recover financing in pesos locally, so “the short term looks to be much better.”

Fund manager WISE CEO Walter Morales conceded that “the rebound in CER bonds is going to exist as inflation is here to stay for a while.”In this framework, operators believe that there are still no “clear measures” in the economy to cope with price increases at this stage of Massa’s administration.

Morales argued that CER-adjustable peso bonds “have been rising and lowering rates since Thursday of the week.” Although the wave of high growth for the inflation-adjustable paper “has passed” for the WISE CEO.

What is still distrustful in the markets is that the US$5 billion targeted for Massa September is considered “ordinary income” in the framework of foreign exchange settlements made by operators.

however, In the first round of negotiations after the new plan for grain companies was published, the Central Bank managed to add US$140 million, Accelerate the rate of accumulation. For Morales, in effect, the “government is putting up” with the soybean dollar. A new price for the wholesale dollar, $200″.

Neri Persichini, Head of Research at D GMA Capital He added that “short-term conditions look more favorable than in the past, in particular due to rising reserves, lower negative real interest rates and the prospect of exchange rate stability.” “But with CER bonds on average gaining a considerable 30% since the end of July which invites caution,” the analyst cautioned, specifying that “The most appropriate risk-return mix is ​​in the shorter segment of the CER curve, which provides coverage against a negative inflation scenario.”

Xavier Marcus, Southern Trust Business Manager He raised the paradox that contrary to the majority belief, dollar earnings remove the possibility of devaluation, in fact it brings it closer. “A week ago you didn’t have the necessary reserves,” he explained.

Marcus points out that “once you have liquid reserves you have the possibility of doing a controlled devaluation”. going to happen”.

One of the signs traders have been waiting for is the upcoming Treasury loan auction on September 16th. The mix of bonds offered by the Finance Ministry will set the tone for the course of CER debt in the short term. Marcus recognized that the Treasury has to go out “with caution”. Basically, you should avoid testing. “Don’t try to come up with something long that the market rejects,” he said.

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