transfers records that Union Expenditure Budget for 2023 for states and municipalities for the concept of 2 trillion 217.3 billion pesos share and contributewill fall short as the growth projected by the government of 3 per cent will not be achieved, analysts warn.
Moody’s AVP analyst Matthew Walter said in an interview that “we believe that shares They will grow, but not as much as anticipated federal budget in 2023,
He said that the budget estimate is a GDP growth 3 percent in 2023 and a less in inflation Up to 3.2 percent, which is contrary to the forecast moody’s one of Growth 1 percent and one inflation 4.7 percent.
2023 budget It projects that it will channel one trillion 220 billion pesos in state contributions from Branch 28 and 997 thousand 114 million pesos in contributions from Branch 33.
Walter pointed out that contributionwhat comes in budget is what the states would get, because Bouquet Rule 33 Establish that the government’s budget is the same amount that is distributed States America,
where there is likely to be change, there will be sharesbecause Growth Partnership federal collections depend on these, which are a pretty big bag of different source of income they are very sensitive Economic Development still oil productionAs well as fuel prices.
“I don’t want to overstate the issue, we are not presenting financial crisiswe are waiting GDP growthAlthough a modest advance”, he warned.
Moody’s calculates that the projected growth sharesBoth in 2022 and 2023, above the historical average growth rate of 7 percent seen between 2012 and 2021. shares They will grow at a more moderate rate of about 6 percent in 2023,” he said.
Meanwhile, the government estimates that shares After a projected increase of 15 percent in the 2022 budget, they will increase by 14 percent in 2023.
Mathieu insisted they are not expecting major changes to their structure for next year state’s own revenueAccording to taxes and rightsBut the general budget includes a very significant increase in labeled transfers.
“But we doubt whether the increase in participation will reach the predicted reach, because we are estimating less Economic Development in 2023, which in turn would reduce tax collections compared to what was calculated by the federal government,” he said.
Manuel Kinto, Senior Director Fitch Ratingswarned that “in 2023, we expect Mexican states and municipalities to face pressure on their stability loan as a result of a Economic Development Limited, inflation effect why financial cost tall”.
“In revenue, low potential to increase tax collectionGiven an economy with limited growth, however, this may be offset by higher realizations. federal transfersAs budgeted by the federal government, these will also be subject to performance presented by federal levy Participant,” he said.
Fitch also expects a moderate decline debt stabilitydue to the historic increase in financial costAccording to their report ‘Perspectives 2023’.
Kinto stressed that in terms of spending, the agency believes that salary and wage expenditure will be pushed up by inflation effect suffered in 2022, and which will be the subject of negotiations in 2023, especially in the areas of Education, Health and Public Safety,