After the development of an aggressive monetary policy by the Fed for more than a year, Fitch Ratings issued an updated report on the global economic outlook, and in its analysis it highlighted the possibility that the US may enter a “mild recession.” ” during the second half of 2024.
This macroeconomic estimate of the North country is based on two important factors: the deep crisis in the real estate market in China and the stricter monetary policies in that country and Europe.
On the other hand and against all forecasts, Fitch Ratings announced the growth figures of the world economy for the year 2023. The agency changed its forecast by a tenth, putting it at 2.5%. This growth reflects the remarkable economic strength shown in the US, Japan and emerging markets, except for China.
Fitch’s analysis for North America considers an increase in growth in the US by eight tenths, reaching a solid 2%, and in Japan by seven tenths, reaching 2%. In addition, growth in emerging markets, excluding China, increased by five tenths, standing at a promised 3.4%. These improvements offset downward adjustments to growth estimates for China and the euro zone.
The document revealed that the company’s revenue expectations for 2024 will also worsen. However, it seems that the US remains strong in these expectations, outperforming Europe and China.
Although the institution reduced the global growth rates for the year 2024, a general slowdown of the world economy is expected. with downward revisions in all areas. The US growth forecast was cut by two tenths, reaching 0.3%. The euro zone also experienced a decrease of three tenths, with a growth projection of 1.1%. China and emerging markets, excluding the Asian giant, saw a reduction of two tenths of their growth expectations, remaining at 4.6% and 3%, respectively.
In this regard, The huge decline in the real estate market in China and the stricter monetary policies in the US and Europe are presented as the main obstacles to global growth in 2024. Fitch emphasized that the strengthening of the real estate market in China has not yet happened, which has affected export demand.
