Madrid, April 14, 2023| The CPI rose by 0.4% in March, well below the 3% observed in the same month last year, due to the sharp increase in the price of energy products, which represents the end of a step effect that increased the interannual inflation rate by 2.7 pushes down percentage points up to 3.3%. The underlying interest rate fell by a tenth to 7.5% – the first fall after four straight months of increases.
The decline in overall inflation is a response to the development of energy products. The inflation rate fell from -8.9% to -25.6%, reflecting the end of a step effect triggered in March last year when it became 18.2% more expensive, compounded by a fall in monthly inflation Prices by 3.5%. The slight decline in the base price indicates that the pace of price increases for the other products remains high.
Given the relatively stable behavior of oil and gas, there is little change in the inflation forecasts for 2023. In April there will be an increase in the general inflation rate, as a result of a further step effect in energy products, which will act in the opposite direction. at the rate implemented in March, although the rate will remain well below February’s 6%. At the end of the year, general and underlying interest rates will converge at around 5.2%, with annual averages of 4.3% and 6.6%, respectively. The slow downward trend is expected to continue until 2024, so that the expected average annual rates for the overall index and the underlying index are each 3.3%.