Monday, September 25, 2023

GDP, inflation, dollar, oil: what will the economy be like in 2024?

Rogelio Ramírez de la O, Minister of Finance, presented this Friday the 2024 economic package, which, among other things, reflects that estimated for the economy next year.

This package includes the 2023-2024 macroeconomic framework under which the Ministry of Finance envisages this Gross domestic product (GDP) close to up to 3.5 percent, an increase compared to the 3 percent expected in the preliminary criteria for 2024 presented by the agency in March.

The estimate is in line with the Bank of Mexico’s (Banxico) forecast last week, which raised its gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast for next year to 2.5 percent to 3.5 percent.

While inflation It would continue to decline until it reached 3.8 percent at the end of 2024, which would be within the Banco de México’s target range and below the 4.0 percent level forecast by the Finance Ministry in March.

This is thanks to the monetary and fiscal policy measures as well as the normalization of value chains and the strengthening of the exchange rate, the agency said.

Meanwhile, supported by solid macroeconomic fundamentals, The peso will remain strong at a level of 17.1 units per greenback End of 2024.

This would reflect a strength in the peso, taking into account the forecast of the Secretariat of Ramírez de la O, which was at 19.3 units per dollar in its Precriteria documents for 2024.

The average price of Mexican oil blend is estimated at $56.7 per barrel in 2024, similar to the forecast of $56.3 per barrel in March.

Production will reach one million 983,000 barrels per day, a figure consistent with improving Pemex’s operating performance.

The 2024 economic stimulus package consists of four components: the general economic policy criteria, the income law initiative, the expenditure budget project and the tax miscellaneous.

Nation World News Desk
Nation World News Desk
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