Sean McDermott set a personal record to move to fourth place in 2021.
So did most head coaches in the NFL.
Fourth-down attempts increased significantly for the fourth year in a row, a 64% increase in 2017 compared to McDermott’s first year as head coach.
That sharp increase still doesn’t do justice to the go-for-it trend. According to Football Outsiders, the increase over the past five seasons is 128%, if you discount “obvious catch-up situations,” such as behind by nine or more in the fourth quarter or by any amount with five minutes behind. Play.
NFL coaches have caught up with the analytics community, which has advocated for statistical value for a decade or more to go for it more frequently in fourth-down situations.
McDermott went on to finish fourth in the regular season last year for a personal-high 22 times. Bills changed to 11. It does not count towards the playoffs. The Bills were 4 for 4 in fourth place in a playoff loss at Kansas City. McDermott went for it 10 times in 2020 and 18 times in both 2019 and 2018.
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On average, each team finished fourth 24 times in the previous season. In 2017, the average effort per team was 15.1.
How aggressive was McDermott in games remaining, distance, score and time remaining?
This analytics depends on the computer program.
McDermott was ranked 13th on Football Outsiders’ “Aggression Index” in 2021. McDermott was ranked 16th on the Aggressiveness Index in 2020, 15th in 2019 and ninth in 2018.
McDermott ranked fifth in the NFL in 2021 in the EdgeSports Head Coaching Ranking, which measures both offensive and defensive performance, and the “Critical Call Index,” a measure of a coach’s fourth-down decisions.
How aggressive should a coach be? This is a matter of debate. If a team is weak in the quarterback position or the team’s defense is terrible, it’s probably a bad idea to go on the offensive. If the team has an elite, mobile quarterback, it is no doubt a more aggressive approach to take.
Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson converts 16 of 17 for his career when he walks on fourth and short.
According to the Buffalo News Charts, Josh Allen is fourth for his career and 19 out of 21 in short run attempts. Allen was 5 of 6 in 2021, the decider in Tennessee, with the only failure in the final offensive game, when he was stopped short of the goal line.
on the rise
NFL Fourth-Down Attempts Per Team
On the Football Outsiders Aggression Index, Chargers’ Brandon Staley was the most aggressive, followed by Cliff Kingsbury of Arizona, Kevin Stefansky of Cleveland, Dan Campbell of Detroit and Matt LaFleur of Green Bay.
Pete Carroll of Seattle (at number 32), Giants Joe Judge, David Cooley of Houston and Bill Belichick of New England were the least aggressive. According to Football Outsiders, Carroll was league-low for it 11 times last year and was not in clear catch-up mode in only 3 out of 10 fourth and -1 positions.
