Friday, December 09, 2022

Google Trends correctly predicted election results in US, other countries

Based on past election results in different parts of the world, Google Trends has served as an accurate tool to predict the winners.

In the 2004 US presidential elections, a ground poll placed John Kerry as the winner over George Bush with a margin of 12 percent. Google Trends data suggested otherwise because it showed that public interest was higher for Bush than for Kerry. Bush became the 43rd President of the United States.

The same situation happened in 2012 in the US in the fight between Mitt Romney and Barack Obama for the presidency. Ground polls predicted Romney’s presidency but Google Trends suggested otherwise and touted a victory for Obama, who served two terms as president.

In 2020, all Moody’s election forecast models suggested another new four-year term for Trump, but Google Trends predicted a victory for Joe Biden.

Brazil, Spain and Canada had the same experience during their respective elections in 2019, with candidates predicted by Google Trends, not poll leaders, who emerged as winners.

The same scenario happened in Asian countries like Malaysia and Pakistan.

In 2018, former Prime Minister Najib Razak’s victory was predicted on the basis of a poll by a survey firm Merdeka Center.

As election day neared, voter interest in his rival Mahathir Mohamad grew, and Google Trends gave him a 43.7 percent victory over Razak’s 40.3 percent.

According to Philippine-based persuasion expert Alan German, ground surveys only measure preference over a specific period of time, but Google Trends predicts who is likely to be selected, making it a more accurate tool.

He said the same pattern could hold for Vice President Lenny Robredo, who consistently ranks second in polls but leads Google Trends.

When it comes to sentiment analysis, Robredo has a positive sentiment of 26.4 percent.

German said that Google Trends is behavior-based and can be compared to different behavior patterns that will lead a candidate to victory…

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