Half of January's price increase will be due to December carryover

Half of January's price increase will be due to December carryover

If there is going to be an increase in January Consultants say that between 19% and 20%, a price increase of between 9 and 10 points “just in case”, is in line with what economic agents charge.

Some recent well-known reports highlight this situation. One of them This is from Econometrica by economist Ramiro Castinera, Which states that “the statistical tug-of-war that remains It was 10 percent in the month of December, Therefore, the average inflation for January (as published by the National Institute of Statistics and Census, INDEC) will be close to 19%.

As it will be remembered, In December, the general rise in prices compared to November was 25.5% An increase that was caused by a “discrete jump” made by the new management of the Central Bank (BCRA), from an official dollar value of $360 to one of $800.

Since economic factors were expected Devaluation was about to happen with the change of government, many people “charged” their prices a bit higher To cover itself, that forced the government to raise the price of the official dollar when necessary. At the time, consulting firms estimated that the break-even point for the official currency would have been $600.

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Decline in inflation

According to Econometrica, inflation rate will be around 19% in January. But with the specificity that more than half of that percentage will correspond to the statistical carryover from December.

Estimates for the entity directed by Ramiro Castiñera also indicate that accumulation for the December-January two-month period will reach 49.3% and that Over the last twelve months it would reach 249.5%.

Econometrica’s projection is in line with other similar projections Libertad y Progreso Foundation (19.4%) and C&T Consulting Firm (19.6%), Which shows that a decline of about 6 percentage points was seen compared to 25.5% in December.

“In the last week of January we recorded 2.2% weekly inflation,” he said, also pointing out that “over the last 4 weeks, cumulative inflation was 9.5% and the moving average over that period fell to 12.5%”.

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Econometrica highlighted that “Food and beverage inflation witnessed a significant deceleration during the month of January.

Camillo Tiscornia and Maria Castiglioni’s C&T report picks up In January “the inflation rate showed a lower value than in the previous December, despite “The high statistical pullback, close to 9%, marked December’s price dynamics”,

The report said the trends The recession “began in the last week of December.” And this continued for the entire month of January.”

Personal estimate

retail prices survey S&T for the GBA sector saw monthly growth of 19.6% in January. In turn, the increase over twelve months was 242.2%, which was a strong increase as expected.

We have to remember this Wholesale prices rose 54% last December compared to November, while retail inflation stood at 25.5%. Which may explain part of January’s inertia. It would be a transfer, although not a complete one.

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The market distrusts

economist and analyst Financier Christian Bütteler acknowledged that the impact of December’s increase in wholesale prices “will be passed on to retailers in the coming months.” Because, in their opinion, retail can’t afford that cost.

in statements to scope However, Bouteller cautioned that “the fact that there are reports that say Half of January’s inflation is in inertia, it makes noise because we must bear in mind that fuel prices increased by 25% in the beginning of January Which covered the entire month.”

Furthermore, he said that during the past month ““New joint ventures began to emerge which affected costs and price increases.”

“What may worry the market is data from the Argentine Chamber of Medium Enterprises (CAME) with retail sales down 38%. ,Is there inertial inflation? Yes, but I don’t think it’s half of it,” Bouteller explained.


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