this day’s meeting starts monetary policy From irrigated And we’ll know tomorrow afternoon what they decided, settling on a 50 basis point growth estimate in the 4.25 to 4.50% range, as we discussed in more detail in this column yesterday.
GDP.- The economy achieved its second upward revision of 2.9% annual and 0.7% quarterly growth, leaving two “rare” quarters of contraction.
inflation– It is quite possible that it reached the peak of inflation last June at the level of 9.1% per annum and from there, it is showing a decrease in the rate of growth to the level of 7.50 – 7.40% that was recorded in November can go. And that just this day will be known at dawn. To reverse this downward move, you will need monthly inflation above 0.8%, a situation that is greatly complicated by falling prices energy even more Foods,
employment– Despite the fact that the employment figures for November were above market expectations, the level of 263 thousand jobs falls in the process of “apparent recession”. Simply put, in October 2021, the economy generated 677 thousand jobs, in December 2021 588 thousand jobs, in March 2022 398 thousand jobs, in June 372 thousand jobs and now in November the above mentioned data. It’s still positive, but with clear signs of a possible “exhaustion” during 2023 and currency markets clear of it, the inverted curve in debt seems to support it.
Industrial Production.- This data is from October with -0.1% monthly and +3.3% annually. This week we will know the figures for November. A loss of momentum has been observed which could trigger a downside correction in 2023.
PMI Mark Indicators for Manufacturing and Services, These indicators are very clear and from mid-2021 till date they have shown a clear downtrend and for four months they have been hovering around the contraction zone and today, both the indicators are in this zone, which is a clear indication of the companies preparing It reflects. A difficult economic environment in 2023. results in If Of companies At the end of 3Q’22 they showed a sharp decrease in profit margin as compared to the corresponding quarter of 2021. By the way, this Friday the preliminary data for these indicators for the month of December will be released.
Retail Sales– Last October they registered a monthly growth rate of 0.0% over September and still an annual rate of 8.4%. Data will also be available this week for November. This data, along with the rate of jobs generated in 2022, has called into question “financial crisis which recorded America in the first semester of this year.
balance of trade.- It continues in the rhythm of significant deficits, which ultimately reduce the growth rate of the economy. In this context, participation in trade has been low. ChinaBut Canada why Mexico They have been taking advantage of that place in one way or the other.
A place to live.- Homebuilding and permits data show a clear downward trend since last May and have accelerated in recent months. The average price of houses reached annual growth above the order of 20% and currently the annual growth is 10.4%.
In summary, we see economic indicators that remain defensive in a hostile global economic environment guerra concerned with China And this global recession while internally Joe Biden He will have to learn to work with a bipartisan Congress, and it will be difficult, at least initially.