The price of gasoline has been systematically and continuously decreasing for two months. This is not a free fall, but a reduction that allows – along with the stagnation of other indicators – to control the CPI as the end of the year approaches and the time to set the increase in salaries and pensions for millions people in Spain. .
In the middle of November the fuel prices fell by 1.64% compared to the previous week, chaining its seventh decrease, standing at 1.619 euros per liter on average, thus falling back to the level of the fourth week of July, according to data from the European Union Oil Bulletin .
For his part, the diesel fell – for the sixth week in a row – by 2% this week, to 1,607 euros per liter, the lowest level since the fourth week of August.
In low price stations the prices are around €1.45/litre, although there are service stations where you can get fuel for €1.30/litre, such as some petrol stations in Murcia or Jaén, according to the geoportal at the gas station of the Government of Spain.
This is not a unique effect in our country, because the CPI in the United States, France, the United Kingdom, Germany or Italy, to name a few countries, has also increased in recent months.
The evolution of fuel prices in recent weeks may directly affect the calculation of the Consumer Price Index, and the November CPI This is what is used to calculate the increase of pensions for the year 2024, so that in the middle of December, once the last data of the previous month is released, it is possible to know how much pensions and the salary which is almost 2.2. millions of civil servants in 2024. And the lower the price these weeks, the smaller the increase in pensions and some salaries
The contribution and minimum pensions in 2024 will be revalued based on the average annual CPI between November 2023 and December 2022, established (for each year) by the General Social Security Law (in its article 58).
Funcas, an analysis center dedicated to economic and social research, points to a rebound in the inflation rate in November and December due to the step effect of energy prices, so they predict that the CPI will close the year with a annual average of 3.6%after knowing that in October its growth was moderated to 3.5% in October.
According to the Funcas panel, the average year-over-year inflation registered between the months of November 2022 and 2023, which is used to calculate the increase in pensions, it is estimated that it will be 3.9%lower than 8.5% where the year 2022 closes (equivalent to the average inter annual CPI between December 2021 and November 2022), so the difference between the average CPI this year and in 2022 will be more than 4 points.
The products that have increased in price the most
In the inter annual rate (October 2023 compared to the same month in 2022), the highest price increase was olive oil (+73.5%); national tourist packages (+19.5%); confectionery products (+17%); rice (+16.6%) and fruit juice (+16.1%).
Olive oil became more expensive by 6% in October this year compared to September, 46.9% in the first ten months of 2023 and 150.7% since March 2021.
In the inter annual rate (October 2023 compared to the same month in 2022), the highest price increase was olive oil (+73.5%); national tourist packages (+19.5%); confectionery products (+17%); rice (+16.6%) and fruit juice (+16.1%).
Along with the aforementioned, other foods registered a double digit annual increase in their prices, such as pork (+13.8%); sugar (+12.3%); mineral water, soft drinks and juices (+12.2%); potatoes (+ 12%); other food preparations (+11.7%); legume and vegetable preparations (+10.9%), and milk (+10.4%). For its part, blonde beer is now 10.8% more expensive than a year ago, while low-alcohol and 0.0 beer became more expensive by 9.8% and other non-alcoholic beers by 11.8%.
However, Funcas and the Spanish Confederation of Business Organizations (CEOE) assured that inflation could still register “some rebound” in the latter part of the year, as a result of the increase in energy prices. Indeed. The president of CEOE, Antonio Garamendi, announced that the rate will close the year between 4.5% and 5%, in the statements of RNE and TVE, compared to other data that suggest that the rate is close to 3 ‘9%.
