Saturday, January 28, 2023

How Republicans lost despite winning the popular vote

washington— Here’s a statistic about the 2022 midterm elections that might surprise you: Republicans won the national popular vote in the House by three percentage points: 51 percent to 48 percent. They won by two points even after adjusting for the race having only one at-large game on the ticket.

Yes, that’s right: Republicans won the popular vote by a clear, if slight, margin, even as Democrats won Senate seats and came within a thousand votes of winning the House.

If you want to make sense of the 2022 election, the Republican lead in the national vote may be the missing piece to help fit some of the strangest pieces of the puzzle.

true republican force

The Republican victory in the National Chamber’s popular vote is no illusion. This is not the result of an uncontested race. This is not the result of unequal voting, such as Californians staying home while Texans come out to vote. Republicans would still lead even if every county or state made up the same share of voters as they did in 2020.

It’s not just about one or two great Republican success stories, like Florida or New York. Republicans have nominated Donald J. Trump’s performance left behind. The exceptions are all very small states with one or two districts, where individual breeds may not represent the larger national picture.

Or, put another way: Republicans would have won the Senate, and quite decisively, if only Dr. Candidates such as Mehmet Oz or Herschel Walker were elected side-by-side with Republican House candidates on the same ticket.

Republican strength in all the wrong places

If you look at the states where Republicans fared best in the House popular vote, there’s a pattern: With the exception of New York, nearly all of them are in the South.

To the extent that there was a so-called red wave in this cycle, it spread heavily in a relatively uninhabited area. Outside of New York, there was only one competitive House district in any state where Republicans led Trump by at least nine points, the kind of margin that could seem like a ripoff. There was no competitive Senate race in any of these states.

Meanwhile, Democrats found many of their best showings in the North, which includes New England, the Upper Midwest and Northwest, as well as much of the Inland West.

candidate quality

The red tide, to the extent it existed, may have made landfall in a relatively uninhabited area, but the red tide was still high enough to turn House votes red in Georgia, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Nevada, even when Democrats Important Senate seats were won.

How did the Democrats survive? Perhaps the simplest explanation: On average, they had better candidates for weaker Republican candidates, but not entirely.

“MAGA” Republicans, based on their support for Trump in the primary, lagged far behind mainstream Republicans. This alone says a lot about the Republican performance in key Senate races in which Walker, Dr. Oz, JD Vance and Blake Masters perform or lose.

there are still some secrets

It all adds up to a pretty neat explanation, but there are some loose ends that make one wonder if we’ve given the Democrats enough credit.

Perhaps the most interesting cases are House races in which no Democrat ran for re-election and Republicans nominated major candidates, such as Colorado’s 8th, Pennsylvania’s 17th, and Ohio’s 13th. Democrats often did very well in such contests, even though there was no mega Republican or staunch Democrat.

What’s the excuse for the Republicans out there?

This was part of a larger pattern of Democratic consolidation in key battle districts, particularly traditional states. Yes, there were disappointing results for them on both coasts, but very few outright bad results.

The popular vote of the National and State Assemblies inspires us to adopt the “Civilized Republican Year” framework. But if one prefers to call it something else then there are ample examples of unspeakable democratic resilience.

Nation World News Desk
Nation World News Deskhttps://nationworldnews.com
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