Sunday, November 27, 2022

IMD says that the first pre-monsoon cyclone may intensify by May 6

But the cyclone could also be a cause for concern for the start of the southwest monsoon season over the Bay of Bengal and mainland India, if it forms

India, which has been in a heatwave condition since March, may finally be in for some respite as the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on May 2, 2022, predicted the formation of a cyclonic circulation over South Andaman Sea by May 4. .

The cyclonic circulation will move towards the formation of a low pressure area on May 6. The IMD has also predicted an intensification of the system in the subsequent 24 hours.

Data from the Global Forecasting System (GFS), as shown at The Weather Visualization Platform, showed further intensification of the system and movement towards Odisha and Andhra coasts from May 7.

Data from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), as shown, agrees with the GFS data on the formation and intensification of the low pressure area. But it predicted that the low pressure area would move towards Odisha and West Bengal coasts.

The unpredictability of cyclonic intensity and speed in recent years should be taken as a precaution while taking action to reduce the impact of cyclone.

For example, in February and March, there were some low pressure areas in the Bay of Bengal, which threatened to become the first cyclone of the season. But they remained at a deep pressure intensity, a notch below that of a cyclone.

The first of these systems formed as an area of ​​low pressure on February 28 and became a deep depression on March 4.

The second low pressure area formed on March 15 and intensified into a deep depression by March 21. Two systems of depression or greater intensity formed in the month of March for the first time in 122 years.

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It is too early to predict the exact level of intensity and the likely track of the cyclone. The United States Navy’s IMD and Joint Typhoon Warning System will keep a close watch on the characteristics of the cyclone after it intensifies into a depression.

“The rapid warming in the north Indian Ocean, associated with global warming, enhances the heat flux from the ocean to the atmosphere and favors greater intensification of cyclones,” wrote Roxy Matthew Cole in a review research paper on tropical cyclones to the north. Indian Ocean region.

The review was published in the journal earth science review in February 2022. In 2020, Cyclone Amphan had intensified from around 100 kmph to around 250 kmph in less than 24 hours.

“Rapid intensification is a challenge to monitor and forecast, especially because of the lag in in-situ ocean observations. The accelerated intensification means it does not allow sufficient time for evacuation and disaster management on land,” according to the paper. .

If a cyclone forms, it could cause concern for the onset of southwest monsoon season over the Bay of Bengal and later over the Indian mainland.

Such disruption of the monsoon system has been observed in the last few years. In 2021, a succession of extremely severe Cyclone Taukata over the Arabian Sea and extremely severe Cyclone Yas in the Bay of Bengal disrupted the formation and movement of the monsoon system.

The southwest monsoon is primarily driven by the temperature difference between the Indian mainland and the north Indian Ocean, which includes the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea.

Cyclone Touke had brought heavy rainfall in the western coastal areas and after making landfall along the Gujarat coast, it had also traveled a considerable distance in northwest India, bringing rain and cooling temperatures in that region.

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The high summer temperatures in this region are important in pulling the monsoon winds towards India for a timely and healthy onset of monsoon rains.

Cyclone Yas, on the other hand, formed just before the onset of the Southwest Monsoon and pulled in the monsoon winds, causing early and intense rainfall over several Indian states.

In some states, such as Bihar, there were floods in the month of June, even though Bihar normally receives most of the monsoon rainfall in July and August.

Raghu Murtugude, a climatologist at the university, said, “There is an expectation that the monsoon trough will start moving from the northwest tropical Pacific towards South China Sea and Andaman Sea and setting southwesterly winds across the equator by May 15.” will start.” of Maryland, said.

He had said that with the arrival of monsoon, the heat waves affecting India in the current spring and summer season will go away.

Murtugudde had earlier predicted that late cyclones in the Indian Ocean region could affect the formation of the monsoon system. What effect the current cyclone will have on the heat waves and the setting up of the southwest monsoon season remains to be seen.

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