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Sunday, February 28, 2021

IMF predicts India will grow at 11.5 percent in 2021

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday projected India’s economy to grow by 11.5 percent in the next financial year (2021-22). After this it can be considered one of the fastest growing major economy. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has shown this in its latest World Economic Outlook report. The report showed 8 per cent decline in India’s economy in the current financial year due to the Kovid-19 epidemic.

The IMF revised its figures saying that in 2020, the Indian economy is projected to contract for eight percent. China is the only major country to register a positive growth rate of 2.3% in 2020. The IMF said that India’s economy is projected to grow by 6.8% in 2022 and that of China by 5.6%.

IMF Chief Economist Geeta Gopinath said, “In our latest world economic scenario, the global growth rate in 2021 has been estimated to be 5.5 percent. This is 0.3 percent more than the estimate given in October. At the same time, in 2022 it may soften to 4.2 percent.

Everything will depend on the vaccine: IMF

The IMF said that it would depend more on the virus and vaccine output. Among the economies whose growth forecast for the year 2021 has been released, the highest growth estimate is for the Indian economy only. In 2021, the IMF forecasts GDP growth of 5.1 for the US, 3.1 for Japan, 4.5 for the UK, 8.1 for China, 3.0 for Russia, and 2.6 per cent for Saudi Arabia.

The global economy has fallen by 3.5 percent in 2020 amid the Kovid-19 crisis. According to Gopinath, the improvement in the estimate of growth rate in 2021 reflects the positive effects of vaccination in some countries and also the policy steps taken in countries like America and Japan in the last months of 2020. He also said that uncertainty is also associated with the estimate. The success of vaccination and additional policy steps can improve results. At the same time, the situation may worsen by coming in another form of virus and withdrawal of policy measures ahead of time.

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