GLASGOW, Scotland – Efforts leading to climate and negotiating negotiations have cut future warming by a couple of tenths of a degree, but still not close enough to meet any international goals, according to an analysis by an authoritative independent group of scientists.
The Climate Action Tracker, which tracked countries’ commitments to reduce emissions for years, reported that based on these presented targets, the world is now on track to warming 2.4 degrees Celsius (4.3 degrees Fahrenheit) since pre-industrial times. by the end of this century. This is far from the general limit of the 2015 Paris climate agreement of 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees), or even its reserve limit of 2 degrees Celsius.
Since pre-industrial times, the world has already warmed by 1.1-1.2 degrees Celsius (2 degrees Fahrenheit).
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Given what has been promised, “we will probably be in this 2.4 degree area, which is still a catastrophic climate change and is very, very far from the goals of the Paris Agreement,” said climate scientist Niklas Hone of the New Climate Institute and Climate Action. Tracker. And his team’s assessment is more upbeat than the United Nations Environment Program’s update on Tuesday, which says future warming is still between 2.5 and 2.7 degrees.
Hone’s group also looked at how much warming would be if other, less firm national promises were kept. If all the national targets presented and other promises that have the force of law are included, future warming would drop to 2.1 degrees.
And in the “optimistic scenario,” if you take into account all the zero-zero mid-century promises – and they don’t make much sense – the warming will be 1.8 degrees, ”Hone said. That’s the same figure the International Energy Agency came up with for this optimistic scenario, and one-tenth of a degree warmer than the independent Australian climate scientist calculated.