First things first, I know it has snowed this weekend. But for someone who grew up in the Midwest or lived in Indiana for many years, would you really say that counts?
If you look around, there may be a small section left on the side of the driveway or around the corner of the roof. But in fact, much of it is already gone – it melted in just a few hours. Did you get out your snow blower, or even a shovel?
What you might really need by far this winter season is an umbrella. Over the past two months, Indiana has seen more than 5 inches of rain in its central region.
Even though the temperatures have cooled off over the past few weeks, it certainly hasn’t felt like a typical Indiana winter.
So it makes sense for this edition of Scrub Hub, that we’re answering the questions: Is Central Indiana in an icy drought? And what does climate change have to do with it?
To learn more about this winter season and if it’s really unusual, keep reading.
Short answer: lowest snowfall in a century
The data shows that we are indeed in an icy drought. According to the US government, a snow drought is defined as a period of unusually small snowpack for the time of year.
Despite a light coating of snow over the weekend, there is a lack of snow in the historic area here in Indy.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, a federal agency, we have accumulated 0.6 inches of snow in the Indianapolis area from December 1 to January 24. Half of it came only last weekend. According to NOAA, the total — six-tenths of an inch — is more than 12 inches of snow compared to what is typical for the December and January periods.
The region has so far received about half an inch of snow, the third lowest in the same period in the last century.
There has been only two times when there has been less snowfall in these two months. December 1941 to January 1942 saw 0.1 inches, while 1931 to 1932 saw 0.2 inches. There have been only a few times in the last 100 years that December and January have received less than 2 inches of snow.
Long answer: climate calls for wet winters
This icy drought goes against the old Farmer’s Almanac prediction for the winter of 2021: below average temperatures and lots of snow in parts of the country, including Indiana.
While it may come between now and March, as of now, things are shaping up to be a mild snow winter. But not necessarily dry.
As I mentioned, Indianapolis saw more than 4 inches of rain in December, which is almost double what is normally expected for that month, according to NOAA data.
According to research from Purdue University, there is potential for Indiana’s future as a result of climate change and warming of the world.
Jeff Dukes, director of the Purdue Climate Change Research Center, said it is difficult to directly link or attribute the short-term occurrence of this year’s icy drought to climate change. The academic said he’s noticed he hasn’t had to shovel his driveway lately.
That said, “the model projections suggest that we will get less snow as the warming trend continues,” Duke said.
The climate is warming: Research from Purdue shows that Indiana has already warmed by more than 1 degree Fahrenheit over the past century and that temperatures are expected to increase by 5 to 6 degrees by 2050.
climate crisis: Indiana students demand action on climate change. The lawmakers responded with a tough ‘no’.
Indiana’s springs and winters are predicted to be more wetter. But as the climate warms, most of the snow will be replaced by rain during the cold season that usually lasts from November to March.
This is not true just for the central region of the state. In southern Indiana, there will be little snow at all by the end of the century. And across the state, events of more than 2 inches of snow will occur half as often by the end of the 21st century, according to Purdue’s research and projections.
Similar to seeing less snow, Indiana is also seeing fewer days with frost. Research shows that the annual number of frost-free days has increased by nine since 1895, and that trend will continue—an increase in no-frost days by about a month in the early 2050s.
Fewer days with frost provides a longer growing season for farmers, but it can increase the growth of invasive species and less desirable plants such as ragweed. Short days with significant snowfall may also provide some benefits. This can save municipalities and the state money needed to plow and salt roads and can save residents time and resources for their own personal snow removal.
A wet spring, and especially a wet winter, also poses its own problems. Increased rainfall in winter when most of the field is plowed and nothing is applied can run off fertilizer and topsoil from fields. This can lead to a deterioration in water quality and may also reduce crop yields in the coming years.
And it’s just one example of what winters with snow can mean for the future of Indiana. While we can’t say that this snow drought is part of a larger trend, it has been a historic winter for Indiana so far.
If you have more questions about Indiana’s unique weather patterns, or any other topic, let us know! You can ask us by submitting a question through our Google Form below.
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Call IndyStar reporter Sarah Bowman at 317-444-6129 or email sarah.bowman@indystar.com. follow him Twitter and Facebook: @IndyStarSarah. Connect with IndyStar’s environmental correspondents: Connect with Scrubs on Facebook.
IndyStar’s environmental reporting project is made possible through the generous support of the non-profit Nina Mason Pulliam Charitable Trust.
